| 配水管网测压点的动态组合预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕谋,张土乔,李红卫.配水管网测压点的动态组合预测方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(3):139-144. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕谋 张土乔 李红卫 |
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| 作者单位： | (1)浙江大学市政工程研究所;(2) 哈尔滨建筑大学市政环境工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(50078048)；中国博士后科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对测压点水头序列的统计分析 ,得到其周期性、趋势性及随机扰动性的变化规律 .利用时间序列分析手段及动态建模方法建立了配水管网测压点的动态预测模型 ,利用加权递推最小二乘法 ( RLS)解决了模型参数的动态估计问题 .经实际供水系统使用验证 ,该法预测误差小 ,适应性强 ,可应用于供水系统的实际运行中.
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| 关 键 词： | 配水管网 测压点 动态组合预测 加权递推最小二乘法 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-6788(2001)03-0139-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年10月25 |
Dynamic Forecasting for
Pressure of Monitoring Node of Water Distribution Network |
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| Mou LV,Tu Qiao ZHANG,Hong Wei LI.Dynamic Forecasting for
Pressure of Monitoring Node of Water Distribution Network[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2001,21(3):139-144. |
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| Authors: | Mou LV Tu Qiao ZHANG Hong Wei LI |
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| Institution: | (1)Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University;(2) Insitute of Municipal & Environmental Engineering,Harbin University of Architecture & Engineering |
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| Abstract: | By means of statistic analysis to time series sampling of monitoring node pressure of water distribution network, the seasonality, trend and randomness are generalized. In accordance with time series analysis and dynamic modeling technique, dynamic forecasting model is presented. The RLS method is adopted to settle parameter estimation question dynamically. It is tested by examples that prediction errors are small, and adaptability is satisfied. |
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| Keywords: | water distribution network pressure monitoring node dynamic combined forecasting weighted recursive least squares |
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