适应性市场假说在比特币市场上的检验

适应性市场假说认为金融市场就像一个生态圈，个体会犯错、会不断地学习并去适应，市场具有动态特征.针对适应性市场假说检验缺乏定量研究的现状，该文从动态市场效率的角度对适应性市场假说在比特币市场进行检验.研究结果表明，使用复杂熵平面来度量市场效率，比特币市场的有效指数是不断变化的，结果支持适应性市场假说.其次，采用向量误差修正模型对比特币的价格进行了建模和预测，在较小的误差范围内预测比特币价格.

The test of the adaptive market hypothesis in the bitcoin market

The adaptive market hypothesis holds that financial markets are like an ecological circle. Individuals may make mistakes and continue to learn and adapt the market. The market has the characteristics of dynamic. In the absence of quantitative research in the adaptive market hypothesis test， this paper tests the adaptive market hypothesis in the Bitcoin market from the perspective of dynamic market efficiency. By utilizing the complex entropy plane to measure market efficiency， the conclusions show that the effective index of the Bitcoin market is changing constantly. The conclusions support the adaptive market hypothesis. Secondly， this paper utilizes the vector error correction model to predict the price of Bitcoin. The resulting prediction model predicts Bitcoin prices over a small margin of error.