| 基于时间序列分析的纪特邮票发行量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王绍棣,谢涛,王汝传,庄佳.基于时间序列分析的纪特邮票发行量预测[J].南京邮电大学学报(自然科学版),2001,21(3):58-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王绍棣 谢涛 王汝传 庄佳 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京邮电学院计算机科学与技术系, |
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| 基金项目： | 信息产业部科研基金 ( 99部 15 )资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在调查了国家邮政局在纪特邮票发行过程中的具体操作和分析了纪特邮票数据本身的特点后 ,采用社会统计学中的时间序列分析法分析了我国近 2 0年来纪特邮票预定量数据 ,提出了 3个纪特邮票预定量的数学模型 ,预测了今后几年纪特邮票预定量数据。通过对数学模型的求解 ,获得一些纪特邮票发行内在规律 ,而这些规律对决策结构在决策过程中有一定的参考作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 邮票发行量 时间序列分析 数学建模 自回归模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1972(2001)03-0058-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年2月15日 |
Prediction of Stamp Circulation Volumn Based on Time-Sequence Analysis |
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| WANG Shao-di,XIE Tao,WANG Ru-chuan,ZHUANG Jia.Prediction of Stamp Circulation Volumn Based on Time-Sequence Analysis[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,2001,21(3):58-62. |
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| Authors: | WANG Shao-di XIE Tao WANG Ru-chuan ZHUANG Jia |
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| Abstract: | After investigating the operations during the memorial and special stamps circulation process conducted by GPO(General Post Office) and studying the characteristics of the stamp circulation data itself, this paper analyzes the predicated stamp circulation volumn of our country in the past 20 years using time-sequence analysis method of society statistics.Three mathematic models are proposed and the stamp circulation volumn in the coming years is predicated.Based on the solution of these models,reqular patterns are obtained governing the circulation of memorial and special stamps.These patterns are of value for policy makers to make decisions. |
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| Keywords: | Stamp circulation volumn Time-sequence analysis Mathematic modeling Autoregressive model |
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