| 漳河水库流域降雨变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵华安,姚开军,官燕华,陈崇德.漳河水库流域降雨变化趋势分析[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2011,33(4):7-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵华安 姚开军 官燕华 陈崇德 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门,448156 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用Mann-Kendall参数秩次相关检验法和R/S分析方法对漳河水库流域未来降雨变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明：未来一段时间内,漳河水库流域降雨量呈下降趋势;流域未来1月和7月的降雨量变化趋势的随机性成分可能很大,应采取必要对策和措施,以应对可能出现的干旱或暴雨洪涝等自然灾害;粗放式的经济发展方式导致了漳河水库流域生态环境破坏,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,进而对流域降雨量变化产生较大影响.
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| 关 键 词： | Mann-Kendall法 R/S法 降雨量 变化趋势 漳河水库流域 |
Analysis of Change Trend in Rainfall in Zhanghe Reservoir Basin |
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| Zhao Huaan,Yao Kaijun,Guan Yanhua,Chen Chongde.Analysis of Change Trend in Rainfall in Zhanghe Reservoir Basin[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Sciences),2011,33(4):7-10. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Huaan Yao Kaijun Guan Yanhua Chen Chongde |
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| Institution: | Zhao Huaan Yao Kaijun Guan Yanhua Chen Chongde (Zhanghe Project Administration Bureau,Jingmen 448156,China) |
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| Abstract: | Parameters using Mann-Kendall rank correlation test method and R/S analysis method,future rainfall change trend of Zhanghe Reservoir basin is analyzed.Results show as follows.The next period of time,in Zhanghe Reservoir watershed the rainfall will be decreased.Zhanghe Reservoir watershed in next January and July the rainfall trends in a random component;therefore,we should take necessary measures dealing with possible floods and rainstorms,droughts and other natural disasters.Extensive mode of economic deve... |
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| Keywords: | Mann-Kendall text R/S analysis rainfall change trend Zhanghe Reservoir basin |
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