| 县乡人口的时空分布预测及在南部县的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈国先,翟有龙,邹振蓉. 县乡人口的时空分布预测及在南部县的应用[J]. 西华师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 1996, 0(2) |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈国先 翟有龙 邹振蓉 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川师院丘陵地区系统研究中心，南部县国土局 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出头胎生育基数概念，据此建立了一种受生育政策控制的人口动态模型．提出了预测人口的空间分布的分级漏斗模型．用这两个模型对南部县未来２５年的人口时空分布做出的预测，已被政府采用．
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| 关 键 词： | 人口模型，人口时空分布，人口预测 |
THE FORECAST OF TIME AND SPACE DISTRIBUTION OF COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP POPULATION SCALE AND ITS APPLICAMON TO NANBU COUNTY |
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| Chen Guoxian, Zhai Youlong, Zhou Zhenrong. THE FORECAST OF TIME AND SPACE DISTRIBUTION OF COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP POPULATION SCALE AND ITS APPLICAMON TO NANBU COUNTY[J]. Journal of China West Normal University:Natural Science Edition, 1996, 0(2) |
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| Authors: | Chen Guoxian Zhai Youlong Zhou Zhenrong |
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| Abstract: | The eassay puts forward a conception of the base number for the firstborn, on which a model of population trends controlled by birth policies is established. It also builds a graded funnel model of fore casting the time and space distribution of population. The forecast,based on the conception and models, of the next 25 years' time and space distribution of population in Nanbu County has been adopted by the government. |
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| Keywords: | population model time and space distribution of population population forecast. |
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