元胞自动机和粗集支持下的土地利用变化研究

元胞自动机(CA)可以有效地模拟城市土地利用类型的演变过程，在土地演变过程中需要确定转换规则.该文是用粗集理论来确定元胞自动机(CA)不确定性转换规则的方法，再利用得出的转换规则在matlab中进行编程对城市土地利用类型的演化进行模拟预测.分析结果表明，利用粗集理论得出的转换规则在进行模拟预测后，用卡帕系数得到的结果评价是0.664 6，为高度一致性，用混淆矩阵得到的总精度结果评价为83.49%，与实际情况比较相符.粗集和CA的结合对城市土地利用变化的模拟和预测具有相应的借鉴意义.

Research on land use change based on Cellular Automata and Rough Set

Cellular automata (CA) can effectively simulate the evolution of urban land use types， but transition rules are required in the evolution. Rough Set theory was applied to determine transition rules of the cellular automata， and then the obtained transition rules were used to predict the evolution of the urban land use types based on the MATLAB program. The results show that the obtained transition rules are able to simulate the land use types. Kappa coefficient is 0.664 6， which shows that the simulation result and the real situation are highly related. The confusion matrix were also calculated. The total accuracy is 83.49%， which is consistent with the practical situation. Combination of Rough Set and CA is suitable for the urban land use modeling and prediction.