基于Logit模型的兰渝运输通道客流分担率估计

兰渝通道是一条连接西南西北地区的重要运输通道,目前通道内的运输线路尚未完全形成,通道内客流分担率的准确估计对各运输方式的协调发展至关重要,因此有必要对未来通道内的客流分担率进行研究.选取Logit模型,采用运输产品效用值代替传统的用多元线性回归求解的特征函数值,对兰渝铁路开通运营前后,兰州与重庆之间两种运输方式的客流分担率分别进行了估计.结果显示通道初步形成后,铁路运输产品的客流分担率提高了18.2%,其客流运输总量提高到61.5%.

Estimation of Passenger Flow Share Rate of Lanzhou-Chongqing Transport Corridor Base on Logit Model

Lanzhou-Chongqing transport corridor,where transport lines are now under construction,is de- signed to connect southwest provinces with northwest China. The accurate estimation of the share rate of passenger flow is essential to the coordination of transportation modes in the corridor, so the future share rate requires researching. As the corridor has not been completed, the models of passenger flow share rate are analyzed and compared,and finally the Logit model is adopted and the utility value of transport prod- ucts is substituted for the eigenfunction by the traditionally-used multiple linear regression method to esti- mate and predict the passenger flow share rate of the two modes of Lanzhou-Chongqing transportation be- fore and after the operation of Lanzhou-Chongqing railway. The results show that after the opening of the corridor,the share rate of the railway transport products will increase by 18.2% and the total transporta- tion volume will increase to 61.5 %.