国际油价波动风险预警及管理

我国石油依存度快速上升, 高能耗产业集中, 但尚无配套的国际石油议价策略, 被巨幅波动的国际石油价格"挟持"的可能性很大. 因此, 需要建立油价预警和风险管理系统, 减少油价波动可能带来的损失. 预警的首要工作就是预测, 但过去的预测都是基于年度或月数据, 预测结果滞后. 为在较短时间内感知油价风险并采取措施, 我们暂不考虑影响油价的长期因素, 以短期新视角对油价进行了剖析, 统一定性、定量区分了短期油价影响因素的权重, 通过灰预测计算短期未知指标后再用油价与影响因素之间的关系模型预测油价的两步新方法, 经过验证, 该方法切合实际, 效果较好. 并提出了高油价区国家及石油企业应对油价波动风险的管理对策.

Early-warning and risk management of international petroleum price

With high concentrated energy consumption industrial structure, high oil dependence and no bargaining package of corresponding pricing strategy, it is very possible that China is "hijacked" by oil price with huge fluctuations, thus oil price early-warning and risk management system is needed to reduce the potential loss of oil price fluctuations. The first job of early-warning is forecasting, but previous projections are all based on the year or month data, there is lag in forecasting and early warning results. So, in order to perceive price risk within a short time and take measures, this article temporarily put aside the long-term oil price factors, analyzed oil prices in a new short-term perspective, distinct proportions, constructed a model between oil price and the factors, forecasted volatility range of oil price through combination of co-integration and grey theory, and proposed China and oil companies' oil price risk management measures in areas of high prices.