项目风险排序研究综述

对风险排序的概念、排序指标以及排序方法进行了综述。指出近期的研究在评价指标上除了考虑风险概率和后果外,还考虑了风险可预见性、管理边际效率、项目承受能力等因素;在排序方法上,系统科学、模糊理论方法、决策论等理论和方法的应用,使得庞大项目复杂风险的多层次性、复杂相关性等问题在一定程度上得到了解决。但研究缺乏对风险排序的逻辑机理和理论基础的深入分析,排序指标的全面性、合理性仍不够充分。

A Summarize on the Project Risk Sequencing

This paper summaries the conception,indexes and methods of the project risk sequencing,points out that the current studies considers the risk predictability,the managerial marginal efficiency,and the project bearing capacity,etc.besides the probability and effect of the risk,and in the sequencing method,the application of the system science,fuzzy theory and decision theory makes the problems of the multilevelness and complicated correlation of the complicated risk of a huge project be solved to a certain extent,however,the deep analysis on the logic mechanism and theoretical base of the risk sequencing is insufficient,and the comprehensiveness and rationality of the sequencing indexes are insufficient,too.