A transfer forecasting model for container throughput guided by discrete PSO |
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Authors: | Jin Xiao Yi Xiao Julei Fu Kin Keung Lai |
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Affiliation: | 1. Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610064, China 2. School of Information Management, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, 430079, China 3. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China 4. Information System & Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, 410073, China 5. Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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Abstract: | Accurate forecast of future container throughput of a port is very important for its construction, upgrading, and operation management. This study proposes a transfer forecasting model guided by discrete particle swarm optimization algorithm (TF-DPSO). It firstly transfers some related time series in source domain to assist in modeling the target time series by transfer learning technique, and then constructs the forecasting model by a pattern matching method called analog complexing. Finally, the discrete particle swarm optimization algorithm is introduced to find the optimal match between the two important parameters in TF-DPSO. The container throughput time series of two important ports in China, Shanghai Port and Ningbo Port are used for empirical analysis, and the results show the effectiveness of the proposed model. |
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Keywords: | Analog complexing container throughput forecasting discrete particle swarm optimiza-tion transfer forecasting model. |
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