水库库周区土地极限承载力分析方法及应用

提出水库库周区土地极限人口承载力分析方法,即从确保水库库周区恢复自我发展能力的角度出发,结合水库库周区的特点,依据库周区自然资源状况、社会经济发展水平及长期发展战略,以人均纯收入为土地极限承载力预测分析主要定量分析指标,采用一元线性回归法、时间序列趋势外推法、频率曲线、3次样条插值法对投入产出、收入目标和人口增长进行综合预测,建立数学模型,计算土地生产潜力.以沅陵县五强溪库区为例,分析2011水平年各村土地极限人口承载力.

Method for analysis of ultimate population carrying capacity of land in reservoir area and its application

For recovery of self-development capacity of reservoir area,the method for analysis of the ultimate population carrying capacity of the land in this area is put forward based on the characteristics of this area,including the situation of natural resources,the level of social economic development and the strategy for its development.With the net income per capita taken as the primary index for quantitative prediction and analysis,the unary linear regression,time series analysis,frequency curve,and cubic spline interpolation function are adopted for comprehensive prediction of input-output,target income,and population increment,and finally,a mathematical model for calculating the land potential productivity is developed.As a case study,the ultimate population carrying capacity for each village in Wuqiangxi reservoir area of Yuanling County for 2011 is calculated.