| 基于BP神经网络的组合预测及在电力负荷的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 林锦顺,姚俭.基于BP神经网络的组合预测及在电力负荷的应用[J].上海理工大学学报,2005,27(5):451-455. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林锦顺 姚俭 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海理工大学,管理学院,上海,200093;上海理工大学,管理学院,上海,200093 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了电力负荷预测的意义及预测原理，并以传统方法证明了组合预测的优越性．在经典预测方法线性回归和现代预测方法灰色模型的基础上，通过BP神经网络进行组合预测，分别应用单一模型和以计算机为工具的组合模型对上海市年电荷用量进行预测．通过分析和比较验证了该组合算法的有效性，
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 线性回归 灰色模型 BP神经网络 组合预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-6735（2005）05-0451-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-12-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年12月1日 |
Combination forecasting based on BP neural networks and its application in load of power system |
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| LIN Jin-shun,YAO Jian.Combination forecasting based on BP neural networks and its application in load of power system[J].Journal of University of Shanghai For Science and Technology,2005,27(5):451-455. |
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| Authors: | LIN Jin-shun YAO Jian |
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| Institution: | College of Management, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China |
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| Abstract: | The significance and principles of load forecasting of power system are explicated, and the predominance of combination forecasting is demonstrated by traditional ways. On the base of traditional linear regression analysis and updated grey model, the procedure for determining optimal weights in the combination forecasting model is completed. In the article, the single models and combination model are applied to forecast the yearly load of power system in Shanghai. After analysis and comparison, the effectiveness of the combination ways is proved. |
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| Keywords: | load of power system linear regression analysis grey model BP neural network combination forecasting |
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