| 不确定性推理及其在斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 丛威青,潘懋,李铁锋.不确定性推理及其在斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(2):198-203. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丛威青 潘懋 李铁锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学造山带与地壳演化教育部重点实验室,北京大学地球与空间科学学院,北京,100871;中国地质环境监测院,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 致谢 感谢辽宁省冶金地质勘查局地质勘查研究院提供的岫岩县地质灾害调查数据. |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对不确定性推理方法尤其是概率推理方法的研究，将其引入到斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划之中。在对不确定因子法、主观贝叶斯法、贝叶斯网络法和影响图法等4种不确定性推理方法进行原理分析的基础上，分别给出了其在斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划中的应用思路，并在辽宁省鞍山市岫岩县进行了试验，进而总结形成了一套基于不确定性推理开展斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划的方法体系，实现了对传统区划方法的改进。
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| 关 键 词： | 不确定性推理 概率推理 斜坡类地质灾害 区划 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-03-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-282006-04-11 |
Uncertainty Reasoning and Its Application in the Slope Geological Hazard Zonation |
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| CONG Weiqing,PAN Mao,LI Tiefeng.Uncertainty Reasoning and Its Application in the Slope Geological Hazard Zonation[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2007,43(2):198-203. |
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| Authors: | CONG Weiqing PAN Mao LI Tiefeng |
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| Institution: | 1.The Key Laboratory of Orogenic Belts and Crustal Evolution, Ministry of Education, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing , 100871 ; 2. China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing , 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The uncertainty reasoning especially the probability reasoning was imported into the slope geological hazard zonation. Based on the analysis on the uncertain factor method, subjective bayes method, bayes network method and influence diagram method, the methods of their usage in the slope geological hazard zonation were pointed. A flew way of the hazard zonation based on the uncertainty reasoning which is a development of the traditional methods was promoted and tested in Xiuyan County of Anshan city in Liaoning Province. |
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| Keywords: | uncertainty reasoning probability reasoning slope geological hazard zonation |
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