| 基于两次金融危机的中国工业品出厂价格指数定量分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李玮玲.基于两次金融危机的中国工业品出厂价格指数定量分析[J].苏州科技学院学报(自然科学版),2012,29(1):26-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李玮玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 苏州科技学院数理学院,江苏苏州,215009 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省教改基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用改进的BP神经网络模型,并借鉴以往研究中国两次金融危机期间工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)运行相关性较高的特点,在对PPI运行进行了拟合预测的基础上,对2011年中国PPI进行了预测分析,显示全年PPI预计为104.791 2,研究发现:2011年中国工业品出厂价格指数将处于高位运行,一旦传导至下游产品,对控制当前日益严峻的通胀压力非常大。建议要加强对工业品价格的监测,合理疏导企业成本压力,减轻对CPI上行的推动。
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| 关 键 词： | 工业品出厂价格指数 预测分析 金融危机 |
Quantitative analysis of ex-factory price indices of industrial products based on twice financial crisis |
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| LI Weiling.Quantitative analysis of ex-factory price indices of industrial products based on twice financial crisis[J].Journal of University of Science and Technology of Suzhou,2012,29(1):26-30. |
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| Authors: | LI Weiling |
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| Institution: | LI Weiling (School of Mathematics and Physics,SUST,Suzhou 215009,China) |
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| Abstract: | Referring to the higher correlation of the ex-factory price indices of industrial products during the past two financial crises,this paper has predicted the 2011 Chinese PPI based on the improved BP neural network model and fitting prediction.The study shows that the all year PPI is expected to be 104.791 2,and that the 2011 Chinese PPI is at high level.Once they are transferred to the downstream products,the pressure to control the present strict inflation will get higher.It is advised that industrial product prices be closely monitored and that the pressure from the business cost be reduced so that the motivation of CPI is eased. |
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| Keywords: | PPI prediction analysis financial crisis |
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