考虑风电出力相关性的输电网规划

在风电大规模并网的背景下,考虑风功率不确定性以及多个风电场随机输出功率之间的关联特性成为电网规划中必须考虑的关键因素。本文采用Copula理论研究了邻近风电场随机出力间的关联特性,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟技术对大规模风电接入后的直流概率潮流特性进行了分析,在此基础上,构造了基于逐步倒推法的输电网规划模型。以我国西北两座实际风电场的历史出力数据为样本,对基于Copula理论构建的风电随机出力相关性模型进行了准确性评估,并将其接入Garver 6节点系统,构建了仿真算例,验证了本文所提模型及算法的可行性。仿真结果表明,输电网规划中考虑风电出力相关性具有重要意义。

Expansion Planning of Transmission Network Considering Correlation Relationship of Multi-wind Farms Power

With the large-scale wind power integration, considering the uncertainties and correlation characteristics of wind powers from different wind farms are of great importance in the process of expansion planning of transmission network. In present work, the Copula functions are used to study the correlation characteristics of stochastic wind powers from adjacent wind farms, and the direct power probability flow is consequently analyzed by aid of Monte Carlo simulation technology. On this basis, a transmission network expansion planning model based on the successive backward method is constructed. Finally, historically wind power data from two real wind farms located in certain northwest province of China are selected as sample to justify the accuracy of correlation model. These two wind farms are assumed to connected to Garver 6-bus test system and the case system is constructed, which can validate the feasibility of the method. Simulation results show that it is very important to consider the correlation of wind power in transmission network planning.