“大春节档”电影票房影响因素的实证分析

［摘要］以中国2016—2019年春节上映的国产影片数据为基础，采用偏最小二乘回归模型的研究发现:电影后期宣传次数对“大春节档”（正月初一到正月十五）票房有正向影响作用，而电影前期宣传次数对票房有负向影响作用；导演影响力对“大春节档”票房有正向作用，而主演影响力对票房的贡献不大；预告片时长对“大春节档”票房有负向作用；电影制式是否为3D对“大春节档”票房的贡献不大。选择有影响力的导演、制作短小精悍的预告片、加强电影上映后的后期宣传次数，会在一定程度上促进“大春节档”电影的票房收入。

An Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors of the

Abstract:Based on the data of domestic films released during Chinese Spring Festival from 2016 to 2019,a partial least square regression model is established to study the factors influencing the box office of Big Spring Festival from the first to the 15th of the Spring Festival month.The research has found that,concerning the impact on the box office during this key Spring Festival session,amount of post publicity of a film has a positive impact,but amount of ex publicity has a negative impact; influential directors have a positive impact,but leading actors/actresses has little impact if any; lengthy trailers have a negative impact,and 3D production has little box office contribution.It is therefore suggested that choosing influential directors,making short and concise trailers,and scheduling more publicity after the film is released will promote the box office revenue of films shown during the Big Spring Festival.