重庆市城市化趋势预测分析

重庆市直辖10年以来城市化水平得到了快速提升,从影响重庆市城市化进程中的城市化经济因子、城市化居民生活因子、基础设施因子中的3方面14项指标,运用主成分分析方法,得到目标权重值,对人口城市化率进行回归,建立回归模型,对重庆市城市化率进行预测.结果1996年至2007年之间的数据拟合较好,回归模型预测2008年重庆市城市化率达到50%,2020年为70%,平均每年增长1.6个百分点.结果表明,重庆市的城市化水平进程可谓是时间短、速度快.重庆市应该根据自身未来城市化的发展趋势,采取有效措施,合理确定发展路径,以推动经济社会整体的快速发展.

Prediction Analysis of Urbanization Trend of the Chongqing Municipality

The level of urbanization of Chongqing has developed rapidly since it became municipality ten years ago.It affected 14 indicators of three aspects in the process of urbanization: urbanization economic factors,urbanization residents living factor and infrastructure factors.The paper uses principal component analysis method to obtain the weight values of the target.It carries on the return to the urbanization rate of the population and establish the regression model.It carries on the forecast to the urbanization rate of Chongqing.The data from 1996 to 2007 fits better.The regression model predicts that the urbanization rate of Chongqing will amount to 50% in 2008 and it will be 70% in 2020.The average grows 1.6 percentage every year.The results show that Chongqing's urbanized level is in a short time and the speed is fast.Finally,Chongqing Municipality should be based on their own future urbanization trend of development,take effective measures to rationally determine the development path and to promote the overall rapid economic as well as the social development.