汶川8级地震的形成机制与中国大陆近期地震概况

此文概略介绍了四川汶川8级地震的主要特征和形成机制，介绍了余震的情况，讨论了关于地震预报问题。笔者认为,以历史地震资料为依据的中长期预报是比较可信的，临震预报的难度较大，目前尚未获得满意的成果。根据近百年来中国地震活动周期性的变化规律，探讨了未来几十年内我国大陆强震活动的可能分布特点。根据上千年的历史地震资料，讨论了华北地区未来相当于唐山地震的强震活动可能将在240年以后、300年以前的期间发生。

Mechanism of Wenchuan Earthquake (Ms=8.0) and Recent Situation of Earthquake in China Continent

The main characteristics and mechanism of Wenchuan earthquake and its aftershocks were briefly introduced; the problems of earthquake prediction are discussed. The author considered that the intermediate and long term predictions are believable, according to the data of history earthquakes, and it is difficult to make sure the short term prediction. Based on the earthquake periodicity of China continent during last hundred years, the distribution of strong earthquakes is discussed during tens years later. Depending on the history earthquake data in last thousand years, the author discuss the strong earthquake, such as Tangshan earthquake in 1976, will occur at North China area after 240 years and before 300 years.