| 动态概率模型跟踪性能退化的实时可靠性评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 华成,张庆,徐光华,谢俊,李淑智. 动态概率模型跟踪性能退化的实时可靠性评估方法[J]. 西安交通大学学报, 2010, 44(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 华成 张庆 徐光华 谢俊 李淑智 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安交通大学机械工程学院,710049,西安
2. 西安交通大学机械工程学院,710049,西安;西安交通大学机械制造系统工程国家重点实验室,710049,西安 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)，苏州市工业科技攻关计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对实时可靠性评估中先验信息难以获取、分布假设不符合实际情况的问题,提出一种基于动态概率模型的实时可靠性评估方法.采用Parzen核密度估计构造滑动概率神经网络,使用滑移时间窗进行统计样本的动态选择,以非参数方式实时估计性能退化数据的条件概率分布,将超过失效阈值的分布函数值作为可靠性指标,来实现个体设备无先验信息条件下的可靠性评估.通过对高压水除鳞泵和加热炉风机失效过程数据的分析,验证了该方法的可行性和实用性.
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| 关 键 词： | 动态概率模型 性能退化 实时可靠性 |
Real-Time Reliability Assessment Method Based on Performance Degradation Tracked by Dynamic Probability Model |
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| HUA Cheng,ZHANG Qing,XU Guanghua,XIE Jun,LI Shuzhi. Real-Time Reliability Assessment Method Based on Performance Degradation Tracked by Dynamic Probability Model[J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University, 2010, 44(1) |
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| Authors: | HUA Cheng ZHANG Qing XU Guanghua XIE Jun LI Shuzhi |
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| Abstract: | In the process of real-time reliability assessment,acquisition of prior information is difficult and distribution hypothesis does not always conform to the actual situation,thus a real-time reliability assessment method based on dynamic probability model is presented.Taking nonparametric kernel estimation method,a moving probability neural networking is constructed,and the sliding time-window technique is used to pick statistical samples respectively and then conditional probability distribution of performa... |
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| Keywords: | dynamic probability model performance degradation real-time reliability |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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