Forecasting vehicle holdings and usage with a disaggregate choice model

A case study in which a three-stage choice model of Canadian household vehicle holdings and usage is used to generate short-run forecasts of changes in household vehicle usage and gasoline consumption in response to a range of energy-related policies. The objectives of this case study are to (1) demonstrate the application of disaggregate choice modelling methods to the generation of policy-relevant forecasts of travel behaviour; (2) draw implications from this forecasting exercise concerning the likely impacts of various energy-related policies; and (3) assess some of the strengths and weaknesses of the current state-of-the-art of forecasting with disaggregate choice models, using the presented study as a case in point.