灰色系统模型预测茶叶产量方法初探

<正>从微分方程及系统状态空间表达式出发,讨论了特征方程的根为两个共轭复根时,求二阶系统响应函数的方法,其结果完全一致。根据江苏宜兴县川埠茶场1959～1973年茶叶产量资料,建立了GM(1,1)和GM(2,1)预测模型,其预测精度前者高于后者。

PREDICTION OF TEA LEAVES YIELD WITH GREY SYSTEM MODELS

The reaction function of the second system has been derived from the equations of differentiation and systematic state-space expression when the roots of the property equation are two conjugate complex ones. The results obtained from these two methods are identical. Based on the data of tea leaves yield (1959~1973) in Chuanbu Tea Plantation in Yixing, Jiangsu, grey model (1,1) and grey model (2,1) have been built to predict tea leaves yield since 1973. Results show that GM (1,1) is higher than GM (2,1) in precision of prediction.