公元2000年上海城区环境预测

本工作基于八千个居民家庭对生活环境质量的主观感受、以及据此进行的专家集团预测,对1985年上海中心城区的基线环境质量进行了主观的模糊识别评价;并就目前至2000年的上海环境质量变化趋势,进行了德尔菲-交叉影响分析的分阶段预测。工作结果表明,上海中心城区目前的环境质量状况普遍不良,就对市民身心造成的环境压力而言,社会环境问题比之自然环境更甚;随着经济的增长,上海市民对住房、社会服务、环卫绿化以及饮用水质的改善前景持明显的乐观态度,而对空气与河流水质的好转较为悲观。

Forecasting up to 2000 AD on the Environment of Shanghai Municipal Area

Based upon an extensive survey of approximately 8,000 families, this paper deals with (in general outline) the spatial distribution of environmental quality on shanghai municipal area, and forecasts its change with a fast economic growth in time to come, through a subjective assessment of Fuzzy Identification and an analysis of Delphi-Cross Impact Matrix. Results show that at present, the environmental quality of Shanghai downtown area isn't well, and in the time to come, however, with an economic growth, the conditions of housing, social-service, sanitation, vegetation, and drinking-water will be improved. But, people living in this city (the largest one of the world) will be continuously plagued by problems such as air pollution and water pollution.