北川县五星沟泥石流危险性评价

利用灰色关联分析方法对北川县五星沟泥石流作了危险性评价。在综合考虑地形地貌、气象水文条件、人类工程活动等的基础上，选取了流域面积、主沟长度、植被覆盖率等7个指标作为北川县五星沟泥石流危险性的评价因子，通过对已知泥石流沟的危险性等级的关联度进行计算，进而得出比较序列与参考序列的关联性排序。最后将北川县五星沟信息序列作为比较序列加入其中，通过计算比较得出其危险等级，评价结果为中度危险。

Hazard Assessment on Wuxinggou Debris Flow in Beichuan County

This thesis used gray correlation analysis method to analyze Beichuan County Wuxinggou debris flow. Seven indicators were selected such as drainage area, main ditch length and vegetation coverage etc. from landform conditions, meteorological hydrological conditions predisposing factors, as risk evaluation factors. The level of risk was calculated associated with the known debris flow gully, and then come to the relevance ranking of comparative sequence and reference sequence were obtained. Finally by adding the information sequence of Wuxinggou as a comparative sequence its risk level was calculated and compared. The evaluation results is moderate risk.