中国北方农牧交错区沙质荒漠化灾害监测评价模型

沙质荒漠化灾害是我国北方农牧交错区最为严重的灾害之一。选择科尔沁和毛乌素两个典型的农牧交错带作为研究区，基于沙质荒漠化灾害背景(图象、图形和统计)GIS数据库，对沙质荒漠化灾害进行判别、预测及对灾情进行综合评估的建模研究，在此基础上，初步建立了我国沙质荒漠化灾害监测综合评价模型。运用该模型对上述两个试验区的沙质荒漠化灾害进行模拟与分析，结果表明：乌审旗、抗锦旗为沙质荒漠化极重度区，奈曼、库伦、开鲁为重度区，昌图县为中度区，通辽为轻度区，对沙质荒漠化影响大小依次为自然因素、经济因素和社会因素。沙质荒漠化灾害危险度评价的结果表明，在毛乌素地区的南部灾害严重，危险度为重度，西部程度较轻，为中度偏轻，东部与北部程度稍重，为中度偏重，但乌审旗的沙质荒漠化灾害程度被低估了，应为重度。

Monitoring and Evaluation Model of Sandy Desertification Hazard in the Agro-pastoral Region in Northern China

Sandy desertification hazard is one of the most devastating hazards in the agro-pastoral region in Northern China. In our study, the relation between disaster-leading effects of sandy desertification hazard in the regions and the developmental stages of their social, economic growth and their feedbacks has been taken into consideration, and efforts have been made to evaluate sandy desertification hazard in Horqin and Maowusu regions, the two typical agro-pastoral regions chosen for our research , by the methods of systemic clustering, gray theory and analytic hierarchy process. And backed up by the GIS database (images, graphics and statistics) of sandy desertification hazard gathered in the research areas, we have attempted a model-constructing research into the differentiation, prediction and comprehensive evaluation of sandy desertification hazard. Based on what has been found out, the paper mainly presents a tentative Monitoring and Comprehensive Evaluation Model in Chinese context. Besides, we have applied this newly set-up model to simulate and analyze sandy desertification hazard in the two areas as mentioned above. We have observed that Wushenqi and Hangjinqi are the most severely sandy desertified areas, Naimanqi, Kulunqi and Kailu county are severe areas next to them, Changtu county is moderately affected and Tongliao county is the least sandy desertified. In addition, we have also noticed that factors such as natural, economic and social, have important bearings on the effects of sandy desertification hazard in an order of increasing intensity. Finally, as regards the danger of sandy desertification hazard, the findings indicate that in the southern part of Maowusu, the hazard is most devastating, in the western part it is fairly devastating and in the eastern and northern parts is rather devastating. However, the effects of sandy desertification hazard in Wushenqi have been underestimated. According to our research, the devastating effect issevere.