鹊山引黄水库水质现状评价及趋势预测

在综合分析鹊山引黄水库水质的基础上,考虑相关因素选取总氮、总磷、氨氮、溶解氧和高锰酸盐指数作为水库主要水质指标,采用灰色理论对鹊山水库水质进行现状评价和趋势预测。结果表明,目前鹊山水库的主要污染物是总氮,其含量常年处于Ⅳ类或Ⅴ类水平,其他水质指标符合国家地表水环境质量标准中Ⅱ类标准;通过建模预测,计算得出鹊山水库2011年度丰水期水体总氮依然处于较高水平,需采取措施予以控制。

Evaluation and Variational Trend of Water Quality of Queshan Reservoir

On the basis of water quality of Queshan reservoir,and taking total nitrogen,total phosphorus,ammonia nitrogen,dissolved oxygen and potassium permanganate as the main indexes of water quality,we evaluated its status and forecast its variational trend using the gray theory.The results show that the main pollutants are the total nitrogen in Queshan reservoir at present,on a level with the ground water Ⅳ or Ⅴcriterion all the year,and other indexes correspond to the ground water Ⅱ criterion of our country.In addition,through modeling the indexes of water quality of Queshan reservoir from 2005 to 2010,we conclude that the total nitrogen of Queshan reservoir in wet reason in 2011 will be still at a high level,and should be controlled.