有限物源流域不同规模的泥石流频率分析--以川西黑水河罗家坝泥石流沟为例

以黑水罗家坝沟1933年、1983年、1984年和1997年泥石流为研究对象,对其流量进行测量和分析计算。从降雨频率与泥石流频率的巨大差异,可知此类泥石流的暴发频率与泥石流的频率差别极大。从历史调查法、地震与土源和产流关系分析法和推理公式与水科院公式的计算模拟推算出罗家坝沟1933年的泥石流远大于百年一遇,1983年的泥石流为百年一遇,1984年的泥石流为50年一遇,1997年泥石流为10年一遇。从一系列的分析计算可知,有限物源流域不同规模的泥石流频率的确定需要考虑多种因素,并进行综合分析。

FREQUENCY OF DIFFERENT SCALE DEBRIS FLOWS IN LIMITED TRIGGERING EARTH--Taking Luojiaba valley debris flow for example

As there are some problems to check the debris flow frequency with the precipitation frequency in a limited source area, the authors suggest judging the frequency by a comprehensive way. Using the Luojiaba valley debris flows in 1933, 1983, 1984 and 1997 as study cases, they analyze the basin characters, the basic nature of debris flow. It is found that the debris flow frequency of Luojiaba is different from the frequency of local raining processes. Therefore, they have to use a comprehensive way to check the real frequency of debris flow. First, the history of debris flow is used to check the debris flow frequency. Secondly, the earthquake frequency is studied and used to compare the debris flow frequency. Thirdly, different hydraulic calculation ways are used to calculate the debris flow frequency. At last, it is make sure that the debris flow frequency in 1933 is once more than every 100 years; that of 1983 is once every 100 years; that of 1984 is once every 50 years and that of 1997 is once every ten years.