工程造价估算及其风险分析模型研究

在大型土木工程建设中，工程造价估算的编制工作量大、时间长，并且在投资实施过程难于控制．本文运用模糊预测技术，在工程建设经验和设计资料的基础上，建立了工程项目特征因素的评价模式和造价估算模型．根据估算结果和造价估算影响因素的组合分析，建立了造价风险分析模型．实例分析表明该方法是可行的，结果是可靠的．

Models of Cost Estimate and Risk Analysis on Project Management

In large-scale civil engineering construction, it is difficulty to estimate projectcost and its risk. Based on information of real engineering experiments, designdocuments of estimated project and applied fuzzy forecast, it gives a fuzzy evaluation method of characteristic factors and risk measure of the project, establishes acost estimat model and risk analytical model. A case study showes that the modelsare feasible, and computational results are reliable.