基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的上海城镇养老保险人口分布预测

通过利用上海人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据及历年统计年鉴数据,结合人口精算学递推和灰色动态GM(1,1)模型,对2008-2050年上海城镇养老保险"老人、中人、新人"在职和退休人口分布数据做出分类预测.在对人口预测结果曲线趋势分析基础上发现上海基本养老保险系统实现可持续发展中潜在的最大危机——退休人口抚养危机.研究结论对于上海市养老保险基金收支缺口测算及新人口政策制定具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.

Forecast on population distribution of Shanghai pension system based on the gray GM(1,1)model

By the use of census and 1{\%} sampling investigation population data and yearbook data, based on the population actuarial methods and gray dynamic GM(1,1) model, classified forecast was done for the distribution of Shanghai working and retired ``old, middle, young' population between 2008 and 2050. On the basis of population forecast curve trend analysis, the biggest potential retired population dependency crisis is found in the Shanghai pension system. The conclusion has important theoretical value and application value for the Shanghai pension payment gap research and new population policy research.