| 高速公路交通事故的灰色预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔立志.高速公路交通事故的灰色预测模型[J].科学技术与工程,2012,12(19):4843-4846. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔立志 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽工业大学经济学院,皖江城市带承接产业转移与区域发展研究中心,马鞍山243032 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社科基金，安徽省自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析中国交通事故历史数据的基础上,引入灰色预测模型,根据数据特性建立了改进的灰色Verhulst模型,同时对改进的灰色Verhulst模型、灰色Verhulst模型和GM(1,1)模型进行比较。结果表明:改进的灰色Verhulst模型较好地反映了高速公路交通事故的发展趋势,提高了模型的预测精度,扩大了模型的适用范围。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通事故 灰色系统理论 灰色预测 预测精度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/3/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/4/12 0:00:00 |
Grey Prediction Model of Highway Traffic Accidents |
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| cui li zhi.Grey Prediction Model of Highway Traffic Accidents[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2012,12(19):4843-4846. |
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| Authors: | cui li zhi |
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| Institution: | CUI Li-zhi(School of Economics,Anhui University of Technology,Maanshan 243032,P.R.China; Industrial Transfer Pilot Area of Anhui-Yangtze City Cluster and Regional Development Research Center, Maanshan 243032,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of freeway traffic accidents data in China,introducing grey forecasting theory,grey Verhulst model according to data characteristics is constructs improved.Improved grey Verhulst model,grey Verhulst model and GM(1,1) model are anal sized in the same time.The analysis results indicate that the prediction of improved grey Verhulst model reflects the development trend of freeway traffic accidents,improve the precision of fitting and forecasting of the model,and also extends its application range. |
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| Keywords: | traffic accidents grey system theory grey forecasting forecast precision |
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