基于动态建模方法的可靠性增长试验评定

运用动态建模方法对可靠性增长试验下可靠性参数的先验分布进行分析．在任务可靠度先验分布确定的基础上，结合产品的少量现场试验数据，利用Bayes方法对系统的可靠性增长试验结果进行分析．首先给出了可靠性增长分析的动态模型，然后运用历次阶段试验中的可靠性增长数据建立动态参数的递推估计模型．在此基础上，给出各阶段可靠性增长试验中可靠性参数的Bayes估计．针对液体火箭发动机寿命分布为Weibull分布的特点，对Weibull寿命型系统的可靠性增长试验进行评定．通过一个实际例子说明了该方法的有效性．

Reliability growth test evaluation based on the dynamic modeling method

In this paper, the dynamic modeling method and the linear statistical method are used to analyze the prior distribution of reliability parameter during reliability growth test. Then Bayesian method is used, and it is combined with a little field test data to evaluate the reliability parameters of products. In the article, first, the reliability growth analysis model is presented. Then with reliability growth test data, a dynamic parameter iterative evaluation model is build. With the iterative model and field test data, the reliability evaluation of every stage can be calculated out by Bayesian formula. Specially, to the rocket engine system, an example is given to show the validity of this method.