| 门限自回归模型建模的有关探讨及其在人口死亡率预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴雅
,杨叔子.门限自回归模型建模的有关探讨及其在人口死亡率预报中的应用[J].天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版),1988(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴雅 杨叔子 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中工学院 教授 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文将门限自回归模型用于人口死亡率的预报,根据建模实践和预报结果,分析了门限自回归模型的参数(门限段个数l、门限值r_j、延迟步数d)、模型特性及其建模策略等问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 自回归模型 门限 死亡率 预报 |
DISCUSSION ON THRESHOLD AUTO-REGRESSIVE MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO MORTALITY PREDICTION |
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| Wu Ya Yang Shuzi.DISCUSSION ON THRESHOLD AUTO-REGRESSIVE MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO MORTALITY PREDICTION[J].Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology),1988(1). |
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| Authors: | Wu Ya Yang Shuzi |
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| Institution: | Wu Ya Yang Shuzi |
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| Abstract: | This paper deals with the mortality prediction via threshold autoregressive model. On the bases of practical modelling and prediction result, the parameters of threshold auto-regressive model, such as the number of threshold sections 1, threshold value rj and lag steps d have been analyzed. The characteristics of model and modelling strategy have been discussed as well. |
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| Keywords: | Auto-regressive model Threshold Mortality Prediction |
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