| 连云港扩建工程后的回淤现状及其模拟预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐寅德,张勇,陈德昌,虞志英. 连云港扩建工程后的回淤现状及其模拟预测[J]. 上海师范大学学报(自然科学版), 1991, 0(4) |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐寅德 张勇 陈德昌 虞志英 |
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| 作者单位： | 河口海岸研究所，河口海岸研究所，河口海岸研究所，河口海岸研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文就连云港扩建工程后,老港区和外航道的泥沙回淤强度,根据测图水深的量计资料,采用时间和面积加权平均方法分别进行了年平均值的测算;由于淤强的预测方法目前还不尽完善,因此,本文以动态系统自回归分析(AR模型)模拟了该港的序列淤强和其随机预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 淤积强度 自回归分析 预测 |
Current Situation of Silting and its Modeled Forecasting after Completing the Extension Project of the Lianyungang Port |
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| TANG YINDE ZHONG YONG CHEN DECHANG YU ZHIYING. Current Situation of Silting and its Modeled Forecasting after Completing the Extension Project of the Lianyungang Port[J]. Journal of Shanghai Normal University(Natural Sciences), 1991, 0(4) |
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| Authors: | TANG YINDE ZHONG YONG CHEN DECHANG YU ZHIYING |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Besearch |
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| Abstract: | The paper descrlbes the strength of sediment siltation of the old harbour basin and its approach channel by means of weighted average calculation of the time and area based on the data of water depth on the measured maps. Since the forecasting method of silting strength is not perfect at present, the paper simulates a series of silting strenght of the port and its random forecasting by using the dynamic system auto-regression analysis method (AR Model). |
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| Keywords: | siltation strengh auto-regression model prediction |
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