| 甲型H1N1流感传播模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘蕾.甲型H1N1流感传播模型[J].甘肃科学学报,2010,22(1):126-129. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘蕾 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州商学院,统计学院,甘肃,兰州,730020 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用经典的SIR数学模型,研究了甲型H1N1流感传播模型及其传播规律,并对疫情的传播时间和程度做出预测,预测疫情将于2009年9月达到高峰期,2010年9月将会基本消除.但加强控制措施和早日研发出防疫药品的举措将会对疫情起到控制作用,可提早消除疫情.
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| 关 键 词： | 数学建模 传染病模型 微分方程 |
The Spread Model of H1N1 Influenza |
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| LIU Lei.The Spread Model of H1N1 Influenza[J].Journal of Gansu Sciences,2010,22(1):126-129. |
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| Authors: | LIU Lei |
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| Institution: | School of Statistics;Lanzhou Commercial College;Lanzhou 730020;China |
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| Abstract: | By using the classical SIR mathematical model,the spread model and regular pattern of H1N1 Influenza were set up,and then the spread time and degree were predicted.The calculated results showed that the most serious time of H1N1 Influenza would be September,2009,and that in September,2010,the epidemic situation of H1N1 would be eliminated.But if measures are taken earlier,the influenza will be prevented and controlled more effectively. |
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| Keywords: | mathematical model infectious disease model differential equations |
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