R ＆ D STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN AN ASYMMETRICAL CASE

This article analyzes R ＆ D investment decisions in an asymmetrical case. The investment decisions share three important characteristics. First, the investment is completely irreversible. Second, there are two kinds of uncertainties over the future returns from the investment and over technology in R ＆ D process, respectively. Third, there is strategic competition in the asymmetrical case. This article presents the optimal investment threshold values and the optimal investment rule of high-efficient firm （leader）, and shows that the investment threshold values are reduced by competition of two firms. Finally, the mixed investment strategies for two firms, the probability that each firm separately exercises the option to invest, and the probability that two firms simultaneously exercise the option are given in the paper.     

Robustness of alternative non‐linearity tests for SETAR models

In recent years there has been a growing interest in exploiting potential forecast gains from the non‐linear structure of self‐exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Statistical tests have been proposed in the literature to help analysts check for the presence of SETAR‐type non‐linearities in an observed time series. It is important to study the power and robustness properties of these tests since erroneous test results might lead to misspecified prediction problems. In this paper we investigate the robustness properties of several commonly used non‐linearity tests. Both the robustness with respect to outlying observations and the robustness with respect to model specification are considered. The power comparison of these testing procedures is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that all of the existing tests are not robust to outliers and model misspecification. Finally, an empirical application applies the statistical tests to stock market returns of the four little dragons (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) in East Asia. The non‐linearity tests fail to provide consistent conclusions most of the time. The results in this article stress the need for a more robust test for SETAR‐type non‐linearity in time series analysis and forecasting. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of hydrochlorothiazide on the pain threshold and on the antinociceptive activity of morphine,in rats

Summary Hydrochlorothiazide, acutely injected in rats, has a weak analgesic activity per se and potentiates and prolongs the antinociceptive effect of morphine.This work was supported in part by grants from Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, and by Ministero della Pubblica Istruzione, Roma.     

选择最小方差阈值的判别式方法

本文阐述了选择最小方差阈值的各次累积矩判别式方法,证明了零次矩判别式最小方差阈值选择法在理论上可使统计累积矩的次数降到最低,在实用上可进一步减少运算量。     

软起动器的数字控制技术

首先提出了全数字电子软起动器的优势和应用特点,接着描述了软起动器的硬件组成—主回路、检测回路、显示模块、数字控制器,并且简单的介绍了它们在电路中的功能和作用。重点介绍了软件设计中的关键部分—斜坡电压控制算法、限流起动算法和六个晶闸管的顺序触发算法在Intel80C196KC单片机的实现,其中限流起动是用传统的控制方法PID来实现。     

新型锚喷支护结构在萍乡矿区的应用

根据壳体结构的力学原理设计地下新型网壳喷层结构，大幅度提高喷层的抗弯能力，同时使喷层整体具有一定的可缩性，能承受强大变形地压及采动荷载，达到用较少材料又提高喷层支撑能力与让压的目标，较好解决了加强支撑、喷层合理配筋、简化施工作业、降低材料消耗等问题，在萍乡软岩巷道中进行了工业性试验。     

原油掺炼及其应用

石油掺炼作为石油精馏的一部分，对整个石油精馏具有重要意义。最佳掺炼比可通过实验、软件模拟等方法得到。通过对最佳掺炼比的实验及软件的分析发现国内外研究石油掺炼的模拟软件操作原理和步骤基本相同，利用各模拟软件掺炼后所给油品物性的可换算性，可用不同软件分别对掺炼和下游工序进行模拟。     

基于稳健关联向量回归的黑液波美度软测量

针对造纸工业碱回收蒸发工段黑液波美度不易在线实时测量的现状,提出一种基于稳健关联向量回归的软测量方法,建立黑液波美度的软测量模型,实现黑液波美度的在线测量。稳健关联向量回归方法通过最大化一个建立在稳健子集上的似然函数得到模型的参数,同时保证回归的稳健性。构造了迭代算法来计算稳健关联向量回归,在优化超参数的同时,寻找稳健子集。实验结果表明,用该方法建立波美度软测量模型不仅是可行的和有效的,而且能够克服异常点的影响。     

极值VaR度量的一个新方法研究

在险价值是度量市场风险的一种普遍使用的工具，是市场风险度量的基石。本文应用统计学中的极值理论与泊松过程于VaR的计算。这种新方法是VaR度量方法中最稳健的方法之一。     

沉管碎石桩处理软土地基的应用过程

沉管碎石桩是地基处理的方法之一,可以有效地提高地基承栽力,使沉降量减少,增加地基的稳定性,并且可以减少环境污染。对此方法的施工作了详细的介绍。