Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

FRP特种航空集装箱夹层板力学行为分析

研制FRP复合材料航空集装箱,以代替原有的钢质及铝合金集装箱,同时为进一步减轻集装箱质量,采用夹层结构设计集装箱各面板;运用复合材料经典层合理论,结合基尔霍夫(Kirchhoff G)薄板小挠度弯曲理论,对复合材料夹层板进行力学行为分析,得到夹层板的弯曲控制方程,并用莱维(Levy M)矩形板单三角级数解法进行数值求解,进而得到夹层板在给定条件下的弯曲挠度,从而提供了集装箱夹层板的设计依据.     

试论词义术语化流程中的转换机制及语义特征

本文从分析科技术语的基本特点入手,深入讨论了术语体系中兼容语词的语义特征及其转换机制。从而为揭示词义术语化流程的基本规律提供了重要的依据。     

Error rates in quadratic discrimination with constraints on the covariance matrices

In multivariate discrimination of several normal populations, the optimal classification procedure is based on quadratic discriminant functions. We compare expected error rates of the quadratic classification procedure if the covariance matrices are estimated under the following four models: (i) arbitrary covariance matrices, (ii) common principal components, (iii) proportional covariance matrices, and (iv) identical covariance matrices. Using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate expected error rates, we study the performance of the four discrimination procedures for five different parameter setups corresponding to standard situations that have been used in the literature. The procedures are examined for sample sizes ranging from 10 to 60, and for two to four groups. Our results quantify the extent to which a parsimonious method reduces error rates, and demonstrate that choosing a simple method of discrimination is often beneficial even if the underlying model assumptions are wrong.The authors wish to thank the editor and three referees for their helpful comments on the first draft of this article. M. J. Schmid supported by grants no. 2.724-0.85 and 2.038-0.86 of the Swiss National Science Foundation.     

铝蜂窝道面板承载能力试验

为了研究铝蜂窝道面板的承载能力,铺筑了室外试验段并进行了现场试验,使用直径30cm刚性承载板模拟飞机轮载,在道面板表面布置位移传感器和应变片,测试了铝蜂窝道面板在不同地基强度、不同地表状态下板体变形、表面应变。试验结果表明:地基强度的增加能改善道面板的受力情况,减少弯沉。当地基强度从70MPa增加到100MPa时,100kW荷载作用下最大变形减小了39.2%。而脱空会使板底出现过大应力,显著降低道面板的承载能力。     

夹层曲板在均匀轴向压缩下的稳定性

研究四边简支具有不等厚度表层的３层夹层曲板在均匀轴向压缩下的稳定性问题。方法采用广义变分原理和布勃诺夫－伽辽金法。     

高硅沸石中二元物系表面扩散系数的预测

用动力学蒙特卡罗（Kinetic Monte Carlo，KMC）方法模拟客体分子单组分及双组分混合物在高硅沸石（Silicalite）分子筛中的扩散，与分子动力学（Molecular Dynamics，MD）方法的模拟结果及Maxwell-Stefan（M-S）方程计算对比说明KMC方法的合理性，而由真实的体系性质获得正确的跳跃频率值及合适的晶格模型是获得正确计算结果的关键，且一旦由单组分研究获得正确的跳跃频率值及晶格模型，便可直接移用至多组分体系的KMC模拟中。     

小麦RIL群体中籽粒蛋白质组分的分离与主要品质性状的相关分析

利用普通小麦重组自交系群体为材料,研究了小麦籽粒蛋白质组分在后代群体中的分离和分布,同时对籽粒蛋白质组分与其它主要品质指标的关系进行了研究.结果发现籽粒蛋白质组分在群体后代中表现为微效多基因控制的数量性状,相对亲本的性状变异较大.醇溶蛋白和谷蛋白相对含量与湿面筋含量、SDS沉降值之间呈显著正相关,与硬度呈正相关.清蛋白、球蛋白相对含量与湿面筋含量、SDS沉降值和硬度呈负相关.     

湖北省经济可持续发展动态分析

搜集了湖北省1998～2002年国民经济发展的有关数据，按照可持续发展的要求，建立了经济可持续发展的多层次指标体系；借助基于主成分分析的建模方法，就实现湖北省经济、资源、环境之间协调发展的问题进行了研究，建立了湖北省经济、资源、环境可持续发展的数学模型，并利用统计软件SPSS和EXCEL对模型进行了求解，对模型的结果进行了分析和讨论．     

干涉型闭环光纤陀螺实现中关键问题研究

介绍了干涉型光纤陀螺实现中的几个关键问题和相应的解决方法.把光纤陀螺的系统构成细分为前端和后端,关键问题有:1)梳状信号的滤波;2)模拟开关的选取;3)信号采样;4)阶梯波的处理;5)干涉闭环光纤陀螺的软件设计.相应问题细化到运放、模数转换、数模转换等器件的选择,并针对双路调制信号对光纤陀螺的影响和应对措施作了工程性的分析.本文是基于长期的工程实践和深入的理论分析而得到的,具有较强的实践参考意义.运用文章中的方法和经验,实践证明光纤陀螺仪的精度和灵敏度有较大提高.