中国和美国信贷冲击跨境溢出效应的比较研究

本文构建了基于符号约束识别的GVAR模型,并用以考察中国和美国的信贷市场冲击对全球41个国家的不同溢出效应.研究结果表明,中国紧缩性信贷市场冲击对本国实体经济有显著的负效应,但仅限于短中期;而美国信贷冲击对本国乃至全球经济都具有相当大且持久的负影响.中国信贷冲击的跨国效应较小,且主要通过贸易渠道.中国信贷市场的本国冲击能解释中国产出近10%的波动,但无论是本国效应还是跨境传导,总需求冲击仍是驱动中国经济周期波动的最主要力量.     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

Do Long‐Run Theory Restrictions Help in Forecasting?

Do long‐run equilibrium relations suggested by economic theory help to improve the forecasting performance of a cointegrated vector error correction model (VECM)? In this paper we try to answer this question in the context of a two‐country model developed for the Canadian and US economies. We compare the forecasting performance of the exactly identified cointegrated VECMs to the performance of the over‐identified VECMs with the long‐run theory restrictions imposed. We allow for model uncertainty and conduct this comparison for every possible combination of the cointegration ranks of the Canadian and US models. We show that the over‐identified structural cointegrated models generally outperform the exactly identified models in forecasting Canadian macroeconomic variables. We also show that the pooled forecasts generated from the over‐identified models beat most of the individual exactly identified and over‐identified models as well as the VARs in levels and in differences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

非线性溃变理论物质结构的系统制约观

基于物质结构实在性和非线性演化模型而提出的溃变理论是非线性理论的观念性观点。本文从四个方面概括了非线性溃变理论的物质系统不同于西方第一推动体系的制约观。（１）在整体观中具体完善了事物演化的“稳定,渐变,不稳定,突变,通过不连续溃变并演化为新的稳定,渐变……”的系统整体演化链。（２）以物质结构的非均匀性提出了第二搅动下物质的涡旋结构观,揭示了“天人合一”的物质性。（３）在结构信息控制观中阐述了非均匀     

层次分析法逆序问题及其在土地利用适宜性评价中的应用

针对土地利用评价中常用的层次分析法,对于权重综合评判算子的保序条件和保序性进行了研究,并证明了加权乘积法是符合所有5种保序条件的算子.在此基础上,针对城镇土地防灾适宜性评价各因素的特点,对层次分析法做出发展,提出限定性因素评价模型,发展形成限定性层次分析法,并将之应用到泉州市场地防灾适宜性评价中.     

基于控制权的企业家激励与约束

控制权为企业家带来了控制权收益,而这种收益正满足了企业家的需要。控制权的配置向企业家倾斜有助于为企业家提供激励从而有利于企业业绩的提高,但是企业家掌握控制权也会有消极的一面。因此,选择合适的约束机制对企业家的行为进行约束是十分必要的。     

试论有限的译者主体性

翻译过程中,译者主体要进行选择、理解和诠释原文和译文的再创作,但同时,他总会受到种种主观或客观因素的制约,因此,译者主体性不仅是主观能动的,也是有限的。     

从《沉沦》到《迟桂花》——郁达夫小说前后期风格比较

郁达夫前期小说风格是以《沉沦》为代表的自我暴露、主观抒情的自叙传,但后期以《迟桂花》为代表的小说追求人性美和理性节制的风格,与他前期的小说形成了巨大的反差,体现出作者写作态度的转变。     

尼克松政府缓和对华贸易管制的原因探讨

20世纪60年代末70年代初,世界形势发生巨大变化,美国在二战后逐步确立的霸权地位遭到来自各方面的挑战。在这种形势下,尼克松政府顺应世界潮流,作出缓和对华贸易管制政策的决策。     

Modelling the development of supply‐restricted telecommunications markets

A large proportion of the world telecommunications market can be characterized as supply restricted. In ITU (1999) official waiting lists numbered about 50 million worldwide with an average waiting time of two years. More than 100 countries had not eliminated the waiting list for telephone connections and hence a supply restricted market prevailed in all of these countries. Only about 25 countries have succeeded in eradicating their waiting list for basic telephone service. In terms of the pattern of diffusion, the subscriber's flow from waiting applicants to adopters is controlled by supply restrictions adding an important dimension that needs to be addressed when modeling and forecasting demand. An empirical analysis of the diffusion of main telephones in 46 supply‐restricted countries is presented to demonstrate the usefulness of a three‐stage Bass model that has been proposed to capture the dynamics of supply restrictions. We also compare the forecasting ability of different approaches to estimation when panel data are available. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.