用带时序子模块的系统动力学模型预测Brent原油价格

提出在系统动力学模型中加入时序自回归AR(p)子模块，并且自动确定每个AR(p)子模块的阶数p。带时序子模块的系统动力学模型既体现了因素问的横向因果关系，又体现了每个因素的纵向关系。建立欧佩克(OPEC)石油产量、世界GDP、煤炭产量与价格、天然气、需求量、供求差额、消费系数、非欧佩克石油产量、非欧佩克供求差额，石油库存和OPEC组织的期望油价共十一个因素影响下的Brent原油价格预测模型，模型的预测结果表明：在系统动力学模型中加入时序自回归AR(p)子模块的方法是可行的、有效的，并且能提高模型的预测精度。     

与半群的完全不可逆生成集相关的几个性质

讨论了半群环的两个性质以及关于半群的a.c.c.p.（主理想升链条件）的一个结论。     

新的模糊似然函数

模糊似然函数是刻画两个模糊集之间相似程度的重要工具，众多学者给出了多种形式的计算方法，但由于实际问题的复杂性，有些方法在某些情况下会产生违反直觉的结论．首先就闫德勤在2001年建议的方法进行讨论，然后证明了一个引理，提出一种新的模糊似然函数，其本质是由模糊集合间l^p距离导出的贴近度．与相关公式比较，发现它们能导出相同的模糊熵，最后给出一个它在模式识别中的应用实例．     

浅谈适龄母猪的饲养管理

针对适龄母猪在妊娠期、分娩期、哺乳期等3个不同的生理阶段的特点。介绍了适龄母猪的饲养管理技术，并对母猪不同症状提出了相应的解决措施。     

写大事抒大情言大理－－试论梁衡的政治散文

当今散的总体格局是多元而琐碎，繁茂而芜杂，贴近生活而缺乏超越，思路活泛而气魄不足。梁衡的政治散却以其题材的大，气魄的雄，以及思考的远和开拓的深，引起散界的瞩目。     

p-可分解群的一个定理

极小子群在有限群的研究中占据着重要的地位．本文利用了极小子群的弱c-正规性刻画了极小子群对有限群构造的影响，得出了p-可分解群的一个结果．     

聚丙烯酸接枝聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯共聚物的表面性质及粘度性质的研究

聚丙烯酸接枝聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯共聚物的表面有其特殊性质:水滴在其表面上形成的接触角基本上与其组成无关,而丙烯酸——甲基丙烯酸甲酯无规共聚物的表面接触角却与其组成有密切关系;接枝共聚物在DMF溶液中,其粘度表现出有趣的现象,说明了接枝共聚物在溶液中有微区现象和聚电解质性质     

Induction of hemopoietic chimerism in the caprine fetus by intraperitoneal injection of fetal liver cells

Summary Intraperitoneal injection of allogeneic liver cells from 43-day-old male fetuses into normal 60-day female goat fetuses resulted in persistent hemopoietic chimerism in surviving recipients without clinical evidence of graft-versus-host disease. Transplantation of normal fetal liver cells into preimmunocompetent goat fetuses affected with -D-mannosidosis may provide an alternative strategy for evaluating hemopoietic stem cell transplantation in the treatment of human lysosomal storage diseases.     

Flow-induced release of adenosine 5′-triphosphate from endothelial cells of the rat mesenteric arterial bed

Adenosine 5-triphosphate (ATP) was released into the perfusate of rat isolated mesenteric arterial beds during each of two consecutive increases in flow. There was no significant difference between the amounts of ATP released on each occasion. Substance P was also released into the perfusate by increased flow, although its release was more variable. Removal of the endothelium of the mesenteric vessels with sodium deoxycholate led to a significant reduction (74%) in the amount of ATP released compared with the release before the endothelium had been removed. This suggests that the ATP released into the mesenteric arterial perfusate during increased flow arises from endothelial cells.     

Bromocriptine-induced removal of endoplasmic membranes from prolactinoma cells

Summary Adenomatous prolactin cells lose 39% of their cytoplasm volume within 7 days after the beginning of bromocriptine treatment. A simultaneous reduction of the rough-surfaced endoplasmic reticulum and the Golgi apparatus occurs. Their membranes are removed by rapid transport along the secretory pathway to the cell surface and to lysosomal destruction.We thank Prof. E. del Pozo, Sandoz Ltd, Basle, for the generous gift of injectable bromocriptine, Prof. E.R. Weibel, Dept. of Anatomy, University of Bern, for his technical advice, Dr U. Helfenstein, Institute of Biostatistics, University of Zürich, for his help in the statistical evaluation of the results and the EMDO-Foundation, Zürich, for financial support.