贵州省花卉产业发展前景及对策

在对花卉产业作界定和简述国内外花卉产业发展概况的基础上,对贵州省花卉业现状和发展前景作了分析,并提出了一些见解和建议。     

网络舆情及其应对与上市公司的信息效率

网络舆情的兴起给资本市场带来了深远影响,对监管层和上市公司的舆情管理工作也提出了新的挑战.借助于监管部门对深市上市公司网络舆情应对状况的调查,实证检验了网络舆情及其应对与上市公司的信息效率的关系.研究发现,网络舆情危机会造成当年度股价崩盘,且来自自媒体的转载会增大股价崩盘的幅度,网络舆情重视和应对程度良好的公司在面对舆情危机时的股价崩盘幅度更低.上市公司对网络舆情的重视及投入能够向资本市场传递公司特质信息,提高资本市场的信息效率,进而降低未来股价崩盘风险和股价同步性.结论表明,上市公司加强网络舆情应对并非是满足监管要求和投资者诉求的面子工程,而是一项切实有效的求是工作,结论对完善资本市场信息传播管理制度,提高资本市场信息效率具有一定的参考价值.     

意见综合——怎样达成共识

复杂系统问题的解决单靠数据、信息和模型是不够的,钱学森等提出综合集成方法要把专家、决策者的意见综合进去,然而,这些意见未必相同,因此要达成共识就有很多工作要做。本文从系统的角度探讨共识的定义、基本概念以及取得共识的过程、方法和工具。     

群体思维收敛性定量验证

本文证明当专家数足够多的时候,加权几何平均综合判断矩阵与加权算术平均综合判断矩阵都依概率收敛到客观排序向量,从而从数学上解释和验证了群体思维具有收敛性,这对钱学森先生提出的综合集成研讨厅理论具有一定的理论价值.     

Allocating the weights in the linear opinion pool

A standard approach to the combination of probabilistic opinions involves taking a weighted linear average of the individuals distributions. This paper reviews some of the possible interpretations that have been proposed for these weights in the literature on expert use. Several paradigms for selecting weights are also considered. Special attention is devoted to the Bayesian mechanism used for updating expert weights in the face of new information. An asymptotic result is proved which highlights the importance of choosing the initial weights carefully.     

节能减排对公交企业的可持续发展具有重要意义

随着目前石油及其附属燃料产品价格的不断上升和人们环保意识的不断提高，节能减排已成为公交企业急需面对和解决的问题。本文根据近4年的个人工作实践，提出了一些有效措施，为公交企业的节能减排工作提供了一些建设性意见。     

AGGREGATION OF FUZZY OPINIONS UNDER GROUP DECISION-MAKING BASED ON SIMILARITY AND DISTANCE

In this article,a new method for aggregating fuzzy individual opinions into a group consensusopinion is proposed.To obtain the aggregation weights of each individual opinion,a consistency indexof each expert with the other experts is introduced based on similarity and distance.The importance ofeach expert is also taken into consideration in the process of aggregation.Finally.a numerical exampleis presented to illustrate the efficiency of the procedure.     

后缀树算法在舆情聚类中的应用

针对网络舆情分析的需求背景,研究了通过后缀树算法发现文本文档之间的公共短语串,按公共短语串实现文档聚类。网页文档的标题和摘要能代表文档的主要思想,应用后缀树算法实现对标题和摘要自动聚类,从而实现舆情信息自动聚类。     

多中心治理模式下的网络舆情应对--基于服务型政府建构的逻辑

网络舆情是当前转型社会、民主社会和虚拟社会叠加作用下的产物。在社会治道变革以及多中心治理模式得以确立的背景之下，网络舆情这一社会现象也出现了新的演进趋势。工具理性与价值理性主导了网络舆情发展演变的双重向度，使其产生出两种截然不同的社会影响。就网络舆情的产生根源来看，主要来自于社会治道变革的内在感召、反向社会情绪的释放发泄、多元网络文化的深度催化和网络社交领域的繁荣兴盛。因此，应摒弃传统社会管理模式下对网络舆情的研判思维，通过多中心治理模式下的理念变革，强化大数据背景下的数字化治理，完善多中心治理秩序，促进国家与公民社会关系的再平衡等途径，从构建服务型政府的视角出发，科学地加以应对和利用。     

Two Optimal Aggregation Approaches of Fuzzy Opinions in Group Decision Analysis

The aggregation of fuzzy opinions is an important component of group decision analysis with fuzzy information. This paper proposes two new approaches for the assessment of the weights to be associated with fuzzy opinions. These approaches involve,respectively, the minimization of the sum of squared differences between the individual weighted fuzzy opinion and the weighted mean value of all fuzzy opinions, which is called the weighted minimum variance method (WMVM), and the minimax difference of any two adjacent individual weighted fuzzy opinions, which is called the mean value minimax differences method (MVMDM). The two approaches are developed and numerical examples are presented to illustrate their simplicity and effectiveness in aggregating fuzzy -opinions.