45钢固体粉末法稀土、硼、铬、铝共渗工艺研究

研究了RE_Mg合金对固体粉末法硼、铬、铝共渗层成分、组织和性能的影响 .发现随着RE_Mg合金加入量的增加 ,渗层中Al2 O3的量不断增多 ,当RE_Mg合金加入量为 5 %时 ,渗层中出现连续致密分布的Al2 O3黑区组织 ,对此进行了性能测试和机理探讨     

中国货币政策中间目标变量的选择

利用互协关系检验（ｃｏ－ｉｎｔｅｇｒａｔｉｏｎｔｅｓｔｓ）的方法,考察我国的货币总量Ｍ０、Ｍ１和Ｍ２与其他主要宏观经济变量之间是否存在一种长期的稳定关系．结果表明,Ｍ２与工业生产总值ＧＩＰ、企业１年期短期名义贷款利率ｒ之间存在着长期稳定关系,由此估计出的货币需求函数有较好的统计性质,因此,Ｍ２应是我国的货币政策中间目标变量的首选对象．     

Gallopheasants中协同进化性状的似然比检验

基于细胞色素b基因全序列的贝叶斯系统树，应用似然比检验方法比较研究了Gallopheasants类群的2个性状对的进化格局和过程．结果揭示了栖息地结构和海拔高度的密切关系．完全性成熟年龄和卵大小显示了协同进化格局；时序分析表明在进化过程中，前者先于后者出现．该结论暗示了生活史类型的转变．     

拟离散模的消去性

对拟离散的消去性作了讨论，得到如下主要结果：（１）模Ｍ有提升性当且仅当Ｍ的每一个余闭子模是Ｍ的直和项；（２）拟离散模的子模的任何两个余闭包是超视的，因而是同构的；（３）拟离散模有消去性当且仅当其每一个为直和项的空子模有消去性；（４）在有消去性的拟离散模中，若其两个子模的商模同构，则这两个子模的余闭包同构．     

Dynamic density forecasts for multivariate asset returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time‐varying) non‐central co‐moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the method of moments for a carefully selected set of co‐moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the ‘negative tail’ of the joint distribution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高压高浓度CO2烟气辐射换热特性分析与计算

针对高压O2/CO2燃烧方式下高浓度CO2和水蒸气混合气体烟气的辐射换热问题,建立了一种新的宽带关联k分布模型.为了验证模型的有效性,以O2/CO2燃烧方式下炉内CO2和水蒸气生成状况为例,采用该模型与离散坐标法相结合的方法计算了不同温度(1 000~2 500 K)和压力(0.1~1.5 MPa)下一维无限大平行平板间混合气体的辐射强度和CO24.3μm谱带累积分布函数,并与逐线计算、全光谱关联k分布模型和基于指数的宽带关联k模型的计算结果进行了比较.结果表明:随着压力的增加,所提出的宽带关联k分布模型与逐线计算的结果吻合较好,与文献报导的两个模型相比,不仅计算精度有所提高,而且对混合气体的处理更加简便灵活,因此更适于高压下烟气辐射特性的计算.     

爆炸荷载作用下RC单向简支板的优化设计

目前,对爆炸荷载作用下的钢筋混凝土(RC)结构和构件的设计主要采用控制其动力响应最大位移的方法,例如TM-5和ASCE的试算法,类似于静力作用下的极限状态设计法,虽然过程简单,却无法获得最优化的设计.由RC板的抗力-挠度(R-y)曲线分析可知,曲线下方面积代表板在爆炸荷载作用下可能吸收的能量,直接体现RC板抵抗爆炸荷载的能力.采用TM-5和ASCE推荐的单自由度体系简化RC简支单向板,选用双折线模型计算RC板的R-y曲线,分析不同配筋率的R-y曲线下方面积,面积最大时的配筋率即为该设计的最佳配筋率,改变板的几何尺寸,按上述方法分别得出不同设计方案的最佳配筋率.爆炸荷载作用下必须考虑应变率对混凝土和钢筋的应力影响和材料非线性,不能直接应用静力计算中的矩形等效原则简化计算,研究采用分层法迭代求解R-y双折线的特征值.研究成果和分析方法对爆炸荷载作用下的RC板的结构设计和加固设计具有较高的指导价值.     

Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models

This paper investigates potential invariance of mean forecast errors to structural breaks in the data generating process. From the general forecasting literature, such robustness is expected to be a rare occurrence. With the aid of a stylized macro model we are able to identify some economically relevant cases of robustness and to interpret them economically. We give an interpretation in terms of co‐breaking. The analytical results resound well with the forecasting record of a medium‐scale econometric model of the Norwegian economy.     

Beating the VAR: Improving Swedish GDP Forecasts Using Error and Intercept Corrections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model for GDP, relative to a comparable vector error correction model (VECM) that recognizes that the data are characterized by co‐integration. In addition, an alternative forecast method, intercept correction, is considered for further comparison. Recursive out‐of‐sample forecasts are generated for both models and forecast techniques. The generated forecasts for each model are objectively evaluated by a selection of evaluation measures and equal accuracy tests. The result shows that the VECM consistently outperforms the VAR models. Further, intercept correction enhances the forecast accuracy when applied to the VECM, whereas there is no such indication when applied to the VAR model. For certain forecast horizons there is a significant difference in forecast ability between the intercept corrected VECM compared to the VAR model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

减少移动卫星对地面站干扰的计算时间

在计算中低轨道移动卫星对固定业务地面站干扰时 ,如何缩减计算时间是个突出的问题。该文提出了加大计算步长和设置仰角阈值两种方法 ,分析了理论上减少计算时间的可能性 ,并通过典型的实例计算研究了这两种方法对计算精度和计算时间的影响。结果表明 ,取样步长往往可以取到相当大 (2 0 0～ 30 0 s左右 ) ,从而使得计算时间大大减小 ;另外 ,通过设置合理的仰角阈值 (15°左右 ) ,引起的误差是允许的 ,也能使得计算时间减少为原来的 90