中厚板控制冷却数学模型

介绍了中厚板控制冷却过程中所用的数学模型,包括差分模型、空冷和水冷换热系数模型、比热和热传导率模型,并采用有限差分法模拟计算了钢板在冷却过程中厚度、宽度方向上的温度场分布,以及间歇冷却对控制冷却的影响·从模拟结果可以看出,返红时间、厚度上温度梯度随钢板厚度增加而增加;间歇冷却时钢板内部温度呈均匀下降,表面不断冷却与返红过程·在线应用证明该套数学模型计算精度较高,可以满足现场实际生产的要求·     

南海海底特征、资源区位与疆界断续线

根据南海海底的成因与地形特征 ,并通过建立和分析南海海底数字地形模型 ,将南海的海底分为中央的深海盆地、两侧的阶梯状大陆坡、以及周边亚洲大陆延伸的大陆架 3个地貌单元 .再据 194 7年“南海诸岛位置图”精确计算出二战后依据波茨坦公告为国际认可的断续线疆界的经纬度坐标 ,阐述了中国对南海主权的历史延续性 .最后 ,论述了南海区位与资源的优势 ,论证了其海域具体位置与巨大的经济政治战略意义 .     

间歇变速比运动机构的传动分析

提出一种运动系数可调、从动带轮节线力非圆、能在各种距离内实现间歇变速比传动的新式肯形带机构．论述了机构的工作原理、推导出从动带轮的节曲线方程、分析了机构分度的相对误差．     

牛居油田高含水期开发的措施及效果

牛居油田是受岩性和构造双重因素所控制的多断块，多含油层系的油藏．从１９８３年底开始投产，初期和中期效果较好．１９８８年以后，部分油层水淹，从１９９０年起，油田进入低速开采阶段．近几年，运用了分层注水、间歇注水、油井堵水增排、衰竭采油井等技术，从而控制了含水上升率，减缓了油田产量递减速度．     

一种间断观测下的无人机地面目标跟踪方法

提出了一种基于贝叶斯滤波器和适航地图的跟踪算法(BF-Hmap),解决间断观测下的无人机地面目标跟踪问题.采用基于中心线和梯度图的快速道路提取算法生成目标适航地图,该图描述了地面目标与当前地形相关的运动能力.采用贝叶斯滤波器分两步在线更新目标状态的后验概率分布,即在预测阶段考虑适航地图对目标运动的约束,以及在估计阶段充分利用目标的所有观测信息.仿真结果表明,在间断观测下该算法对地面机动目标有着良好的跟踪效果.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

非圆齿轮行星机构

把非圆齿轮运动学原理推广到非圆齿轮行星机构中、给出了非圆齿轮机构的位置函数和传动比函数的计算公式．并结合几种典型非圆齿轮行星机构分析了其作为间歇机构应用时的约束条件．     

非线性离散大系统的关联稳定性

本文根据大系统分解集结思想和非负矩阵的偏序,通过孤立子系统的Cauchy矩阵与耦合矩阵的估计式,采用分块迭代估值方法来研究非线性离散大系统在其关联结构扰动下的稳定性,避免了构造Lyapunov函数的麻烦。     

低产油井间开模式定量优化及应用

基于降低生产成本和节约能源的目的,对低产油井实行间开生产已经为人们普遍接受.合理确立油井间开工作制度显得尤为重要.利用油井静液面恢复快慢程度与其产能的密切关系,引入油层折算压力,初步确立该油井的工作制度.在此基础上,考虑液面恢复过程中液柱自重抑制了地层的供液能力,建立了井筒液柱高度恢复随时间变化的模型,拟合出实际液面恢复高度随时间变化方程,从而优化了工作制度.应用于现场一口生产井取得了较好效果.