Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

石油微观渗流数值模拟实验

应用基于骨架隐曲面造型技术，构造了一种抽象的孔隙空间模型，在此基础上运用系统模拟技术开发了一个石油微观运移数值模拟实验平台，用于模拟和展示石油在饱含水孔隙介质中的运移过程，并验证了以浮力为主要运移动力的动力学模型的适用性。     

重视师生沟通优化班级管理

进行师生沟通，优化班级管理有四个要点，一是接近学生，熟悉学生；二是捕捉学生的闪光点，赞扬学生；三是形成健康的集体舆论；四是关心学生生活，参与学生的课外活动。     

Banach空间中有限族非扩张映象隐迭代程序的收敛性

在Banach空间的框架下，研究了有限族非扩张映象隐迭代程序的收敛性，其结果不仅改进和发展了最新的有关结果，而且也肯定地回答了Xu提出的一个公开问题。     

新形势下高校图书馆实施"知识管理"的战略性思考

普通院校图书馆的知识管理,是以师生用户为主要合作伙伴,并充分利用学科馆员的作用,以开发用户需求上的有效资源为基本出发点,以求得图书馆和用户获得双赢的现代管理方法.     

确定隐函数中参数的最小二乘法

将最小二乘法推广到了隐函数情形，简化了一些实际问题的处理。文中给出了插值和非线性回归两种情况下的最小二乘法原理，并讨论了具体的算例。     

科技知识生产中的隐知识生产量的测算

以我国26个省市的科技活动数据为基础,通过对这些省市三年的知识生产过程及知识产品中显知识与隐知识构成比例的模型分析,研究隐知识与显知识的内在关系。     

Optimal Dispatching of Large—scale Water Supply System

This paper deals with the use of optimal control techniques in large-scale water distribution networks. According to the network characteristics and actual state of the water supply system in China, the implicit model, which may be solved by utilizing the hierarchical optimization method,is established. In special, based on the analyses of the water supply system containing variable-speed pumps, a software tool has been developed successfully. The application of this model to the city of Shenyang (China) is compared to experiential strategy. The results of this study show that the developed model is a very promising optimization method to control the large-scale water sup-ply systems.     

二维溃坝洪水波演进的数值模拟及动态显示

采用基于MacCormack预测—校正技术的隐式数值格式求解控制水流运动的二维浅水方程，建立了模拟大坝瞬间全溃或局部溃倒所致的洪水演进过程的数学模型；应用该模型对矩形明渠中缓、急流过渡的水面曲线进行了数值计算，并与理论解进行了比较；最后用该模型预测了矩形河道中大坝瞬间局部溃倒的洪水演进过程，并对模拟结果进行了定性分析。比较与分析结果表明，该模型对模拟溃坝洪水波很有效。     

三维非定常粘性流动的数值方法及其应用

提出了适用于模拟非定常三维粘性流动问题的数值计算体系，包括高速收敛稳定性好的新的ＬＵ型隐式格式，捕捉弱间断面和滑移面的高精度、高分辨率的改良型ＭＵＳＣＬＴＶＤ格式。将基于此数值模型而发展起来的非定常粘性流动通用软件应用于叶轮机械气动热力学计算，为研究内流粘性损失、激波和非定常尾涡干涉、三维分离流动，尤其为探明分离泡内部的涡结构打下了基础。此软件亦适用于叶栅设计等方面的工程应用问题