Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

厦门小微企业知识产权托管治理的问题及对策

厦门市知识产权托管工作已由政府单向管理向以政府为主引导，企业、服务机构、行业协会、产业园区以及自贸区等载体参与其中的多元治理体系转变，并取得了良好的成效。但存在顶层设计缺失、托管机构服务能力不足、行业协会作用发挥不充分、氛围营造不够等问题。厦门市应通过加强监管力度、提高小微企业参与托管的意识、提升托管机构的服务能力、激励行业协会发挥作用、加强宣传等措施，进一步完善多元共治的治理体系，提升小微企业知识产权托管治理效能。     

“二三结合”开发模式渗流特征研究

L油田B区块开展"二三结合"实验区,"二三结合"开发模式渗流特征对区块的合理高效开发具有重要意义。为了明确其渗流特征,利用油藏数值模拟软件Eclipse建立代表意义的油藏数值模型,研究区块"二三结合"开发模式下原射孔层和补孔层的渗流特征,分析了"二三结合"开发模式下,不同开发阶段综合含水率、采出程度、井底压力、地层压力及含水饱和度的变化特征。研究表明,"二三结合"开发模式先通过水驱开发挖潜原射孔层剩余油,提高厚油层顶部剩余油的采出程度,再通过聚合物驱进一步提高开发效果,通过水驱与聚驱的综合作用,最终得到较好的开发效果。     

Forecasting in long horizons using smoothed direct forecast

This paper constructs a forecast method that obtains long‐horizon forecasts with improved performance through modification of the direct forecast approach. Direct forecasts are more robust to model misspecification compared to iterated forecasts, which makes them preferable in long horizons. However, direct forecast estimates tend to have jagged shapes across horizons. Our forecast method aims to “smooth out” erratic estimates across horizons while maintaining the robust aspect of direct forecasts through ridge regression, which is a restricted regression on the first differences of regression coefficients. The forecasts are compared to the conventional iterated and direct forecasts in two empirical applications: real oil prices and US macroeconomic series. In both applications, our method shows improvement over direct forecasts.     

基于ESI和InCites的学科发展预测研究--以中国地质大学为例

基于汤姆路透公司的ESI和InCites数据库，分析了中国地质大学各学科的特征，探讨了高被引论文、热门论文、顶尖论文与学科发展的关系，并预测后续最有可能入围ESI世界前1％的学科。     

清明上河园游客行为及经营对策研究

主题公园必须有鲜明的主题，清明上河园突出宋文化，1998年开园以来取得了一定的效益，但还存在不少问题，针对清明上河园的经营现状，为了该园更好的发展，通过问卷调查的方式系统地了解了清明上河园的游客行为，在详细分析游客行为的基础上，对该园的经营提出了建设性对策。     

搞好公路路政管理工作的新举措

论述了公路路政管理工作的重要性，并提出了加强综合治理，发动群众参与，教育与处罚相结合及提高路政人员素质等若干项搞好公路路政管理工作的具体措施。     

面向MIS的预测支持系统的研究

通过对预测支持系统研究现状的分析,讨论了预测支持系统如何更好的适用于MIS,为其提供预测支持.并提出了更加适应MIS当今和未来发展的预测支持系统构建模式.     

廊坊市“文化信息资源共享工程”建设分析与研究

在介绍廊坊市“文化信息资源共享工程”建设现状基础上,阐述了资源共享的意义,分析了资源共享存在的问题,研究了相应的解决方法。     

基于GM（1，1）模型的某高校招生人数预测

分析了近年来我国高校招生人数的变化趋势，并利用GM（1，1）模型对某高校2008年的招生人数进行了预测．从而为高校招生人数决策提供了依据。