基于后验风险确定故障样本量的Bayes方法

针对目前测试性故障样本量的确定方法过于粗糙和试验样本量过大的问题,提出了合理运用信息熵方法对装备系统各单元的测试性先验信息进行信息融合,得到装备系统级测试性试验数据。在此基础上得到测试性指标的先验分布,并进一步通过Bayes后验风险准则确定故障样本量及试验方案。以某型电动舵机系统各模块的试验数据为例,以故障检测率为测试性指标,经过分析和计算,发现运用所提方法得到的故障样本量相比传统方法明显减少,从而减少了试验成本,同时得到的测试性指标相对误差较小,保证了可信度。     

Developmental modes of the Neoproterozoic-Lower Paleozoic marine hydrocarbon source rocks in China

Based on the researches on rock type, the mode of occurrence, diagnostic minerals and creatures, the sedimentary geochemistry and organic facies of Chinese marine source rocks from wells and outcrops, and on the research findings of developmental modes of foreign marine source rock, the authors consider that it is impossible to objectively make clear the formation mechanism of hydrocarbon source rock with high organic matter abundance by either single mode of preservation or high organic matter productivity. According to the Chinese geological features, the formation mechanism of the Neoproterozoic-Lower Paleozoic marine source rock is generalized into four modes, namely, thermal water activity-upwelling flow-anoxic; carbonate gentle slope-upwelling flow; xerothermic climate-brine euxinic milieu; and humid climate-retained euxinic milieu; as the Lower Cambrian undercompensation basin organic facies （the Tarim Basin, South China and southwestern margin of North China）, carbonate gentle lime mud bound organic facies （the Upper Ordovician in Tazhong region of the Tarim Basin and the Lower Silurian in the Upper Yangtze Platform）, the Middle Cambrian evaporation laggon organic facies （the Tarim Basin and the Upper Yangtze Platform）, enclosed undercompensation terrigenous bay organic facies （the Middle-Upper Ordovician in the west of the Tarim Basin, the Lower Silurian Long- maxi Formation in the Upper Yangtze platform）. Chinese marine sedimentations with lower organic matter abundance are generalized into two modes of consumption-dilution mode of open epicontinental sea and depletion-dilution mode of supercompensation basin.     

基于DELPHI5的高校选修课管理系统的设计与实现

主要介绍高校选修课管理系统的设计思想，并着重分析和讨论了后台数据库的设计方法和原理，最后讨论了运用Delphi5开发该系统的整个过程。     

确定事件视界的新公式

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微波等离子体离子化检测器研究

本文采用氢气为载气和等离子体工作气体，以苯和二氧化碳为例，对不同电离电位样品组分经过和不经过等离子体两种样品引入检测器方式进行了详细的对比研究，发现检测器分别具有质量型和浓度型检测器的响应特征．探讨了空气引人等离子体对检测器分析性能的影响．     

临近空间单粒子效应的数值模型和电路模拟

针对临近空间单粒子效应进行了数值模型仿真和特征尺寸为0.1 μm的反相器电路的脉冲注入模拟研究。数值仿真结果表明器件临界电荷随着工作电压的降低而减小,敏感横截面随着临界电荷的降低而逐渐增大。临近空间微电子器件的单粒子翻转概率随敏感横截面增大而上升,但其又随临近空间高度的增加而下降。此外,利用SPICE软件脉冲注入模拟观察到了反相器电路的单粒子翻转现象。所得结论有助于深入研究临近空间的单粒子效应并为器件抗辐射加固提供了理论依据。     

Time‐simultaneous prediction band for a time series

I propose principles and methods for the construction of a time‐simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series. The methods are entirely based on a learning sample of time trajectories, and make no parametric assumption about its distribution. Hence, the methods are general and widely applicable. The expected coverage probability of a band can be estimated by a bootstrap procedure. The estimate is likely to be less than the nominal level. Expected lack of coverage can be compensated for by increasing the coverage in the learning sample. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the methods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基因研究中的知情权探析

20世纪以来，基因研究得到了广泛重视，尤其是人类基因组序列的测定给制药、保健、农业和食品制造等产业带来了巨大商机。与此同时，基因侵权事件屡屡发生，尤其是在发展中国家。目前在中国，出现的最为普遍、最为严重的侵权行为就是侵犯被研究对象的知情权。对此，应加强知情权的保护，严格约束中方合作单位，加侠基因方面的立法，加强公民的自我保护意识。     

小样本参数估计算法及其应用

本文简要介绍了Minimax法和MSAR法对小样本数据的研究,随之重点介绍了1种实用的新算法IMSAR法及其应用。该法是通过变权松弛最小二乘法,确定适当的权因子来实现的。它克服了MSAR法的运算量随样本数据量增加而显著增加的突出缺点,仿真结果表明:IMSAR法具有较强的抗干扰能力,可适应于噪声分布未知的情况。最后,本文将IMSAR法应用于转炉炼钢动态模型及药物房室模型的建立,收到了令人满意的效果。