古诗词中的雨意象简析

在中国古典诗词里,雨由自然界的表象上升为艺术意象后,往往成为涂抹着诗人浓烈感情色彩的一种意象,这或许也就是荣格所说的包含着集体无意识的一种原始意象吧。本文从雨给人带来的愁苦和欢乐两种不同情绪来分析古诗词中的雨这一意象。     

Incorporating textual and management factors into financial distress prediction: A comparative study of machine learning methods

Financial distress prediction (FDP) has been widely considered as a promising approach to reducing financial losses. While financial information comprises the traditional factors involved in FDP, nonfinancial factors have also been examined in recent studies. In light of this, the purpose of this study is to explore the integrated factors and multiple models that can improve the predictive performance of FDP models. This study proposes an FDP framework to reveal the financial distress features of listed Chinese companies, incorporating financial, management, and textual factors, and evaluating the prediction performance of multiple models in different time spans. To develop this framework, this study employs the wrapper-based feature selection method to extract valuable features, and then constructs multiple single classifiers, ensemble classifiers, and deep learning models in order to predict financial distress. The experiment results indicate that management and textual factors can supplement traditional financial factors in FDP, especially textual ones. This study also discovers that integrated factors collected 4 years prior to the predicted benchmark year enable a more accurate prediction, and the ensemble classifiers and deep learning models developed can achieve satisfactory FDP performance. This study makes a novel contribution as it expands the predictive factors of financial distress and provides new findings that can have important implications for providing early warning signals of financial risk.     

基于董事会治理因素的财务危机预警模型的构建

企业在经营过程中存在着越来越多的财务风险,为了防止这些风险演变为财务危机,及时进行财务危机预警分析,就需要理顺公司的治理结构,引入董事会治理因素来完善财务危机预警机制.以120家上市公司为研究对象,分别运用非参数检验、T检验以及主成分分析对财务变量和董事会治理变量进行筛选,进而运用Logistic回归分析构建预警模型.结果显示,未引入董事会治理变量的模型的预测正确率为92.5%,而引入董事会治理变量的模型预测正确率为94.15%,预警能力明显增强,也说明,董事会治理因素是影响公司财务危机的一个重要方面.     

Inhaled and exhaled nitric oxide

Inhaled nitric oxide (NO) is used to treat various cardiopulmonary disorders associated with pulmonary hypertension. The rationale is based on the fact that NO, given by inhalation, only dilates those pulmonary vessels that perfuse well-ventilated lung units. As a result, pulmonary gas exchange is improved while pulmonary vascular resistance is reduced and pulmonary blood flow is increased. Inhaled NO has been succesfully applied to treat persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn, reducing the need for extracorporeal life support. Although pulmonary hypertension and altered vasoreactivity contribute to profound hypoxaemia in adult and paediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), the benefit of inhaled NO still remains to be established in patients with ARDS. ARDS is a complex response of the lung to direct or indirect insults, leading to pulmonary vasoconstriction and various inflammatory responses. Recent randomized trials suggest that inhaled NO only causes a transient improvement in oxygenation. Whether this effect is important in the long-term management of ARDS remains to be established. NO, measured in the exhaled breath, is an elegant and non-invasive means to monitor inflammation of the upper and lower respiratory tract. In the normal upper airways, the bulk of exhaled NO originates from the paranasal sinuses. Exhaled NO is increased in nasal allergy and decreased in cystic fibrosis, nasal polyposis and chronic sinusitis. That NO production is increased in asthmatic airways is also well established. However, several questions still need to be addressed, in particular evaluation of the sensitivity and specificity of the measurement techniques, and assessment of the bronchodilator action of endogenous NO.     

超载对路面过早损坏影响的分析及对策

通过对路面使用寿命、结构应力、车辙等方面的分析 ,找出超载对沥青路面过早损坏的影响 ,并提出了相应的合理化建议     

财务困境概率贝叶斯估计

通过财务困境概率估计模型建立一套企业财务风险预测系统,具有降低企业经营风险、投资风险以及防范金融危机的重要意义。现有的预测模型主要有:多元识别分析模型、Logit和Probit等统计回归模型以及人工神经网络预测模型。但以上模型均忽略了决策者个人经验、智慧以及信息优势对财务困境预测的重要作用。本文利用贝叶斯分析方法建立的概率估计模型,可以较好地解决这个问题,提高预测的针对性和准确性。     

基于构件的桥梁缺损状况分层加权评价方法

根据我国桥梁管理的实际情况和桥梁结构特征及缺损特征，构建了基于构件的桥梁缺损状况分层加权评价方法，提出用一种综合指标——桥梁状况指数BcI来表征桥梁整体缺损状况，并建立了BCI评价模型，为不同结构型式桥梁提供了统一的评价标准；采用主观与客观相结合的方法，建立了专家知识库以两种权重的形式定量确定了主观评价与客观量测之间的关系．     

Enhancing momentum investment strategy using leverage

Previous studies examine investment strategies based on leverage and momentum; none investigates both variables jointly as an investment strategy. This paper is the first incorporating leverage and momentum together. We show that low past returns (losers) forecast future negative abnormal returns only among stocks with high leverage levels, but not among stocks with low leverage levels. However, high past returns (winners) forecast future positive abnormal returns independently of leverage level. As a result, the negative relation between leverage and future abnormal returns is only observed among loser stocks, and the positive relation between past returns and future abnormal returns is only shown among non‐low leverage stocks. Our results are important in achieving better investment strategies: buying winners' stocks (independently of their level of leverage) and short‐selling losers' stocks with high leverage yield higher abnormal returns than strategies based on only one of these variables. Our two‐dimensional strategy yields risk‐adjusted abnormal returns of 15.66% per annum, whereas the single leverage or momentum strategies yield 7.70% and 7.96% per annum, respectively. The difference is nearly 8% and economically significant. If leverage is considered as proxy for default risk, our results, contrary to previous evidence, show that momentum profits are not exclusive of default stocks, and that momentum returns are not only driven by negative returns yielded by distress stocks.     

上市公司财务困境教学案例分析——以民和牧业为例

本文主要以一家上市公司民和牧业(002234)为例,从盈利能力、营运能力、偿债能力、成长能力、现金流量、杠杆系数和非财务指标等方面分析该公司从2009年至2013年的公司发展营运状况,由此判断它在2014年被特别处理(ST)的原因。     

基于人工种群的路面裂纹检测

提出了用于路面裂纹检测的人工生命算法,该算法遵循人工生命理论由下而上构建人工系统的原则,构建了人工种群。人工种群由不同种类的人工生物组成,有些种类的人工生物依据裂纹区域较暗的前提条件完成了路面图像的二值化,而另一些则依据裂纹与噪声、黑斑、油污在形状上的区别来进一步识别裂纹。不同种类的人工生物严格分工、相互合作,从而完成裂纹检测。人工生命算法具有较好的适应性,实验结果证实人工生命算法是有效的。