带有通胀风险的退休后期最优投资管理

考虑通货膨胀的影响,研究了一个确定缴费养老计划退休后期最优投资决策问题.自退休时刻开始,退休者定期从账户里抽取一定的金额维持日常支出,然后将剩余的财富投资于一个无风险资产、一个股票指数和一个通胀指数债券,直到强制购买年金的时刻.为保障退休后的正常生活,退休者在每个时刻设定投资的目标值,采取二次效用函数衡量投资财富水平和目标值的差距,并选择最优的投资策略以最小化平均累计差距.运用动态规划和随机控制方法,得到了没有上方惩罚的目标值、最优投资策略、最优值函数、破产概率以及终端财富与目标值差距的分布函数等指标的显式表达式.运用数学分析和数值分析手段,得到了每个时刻目标值的性质,分析了终端目标值和消费金额对破产概率的影响,研究了物价指数的瞬间变化率和波动率对财富值与目标值的差距、各时刻财富均值以及破产概率的影响.     

Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

"藏汇于国"到"藏汇于民"的外汇投资渠道探讨

为了更好地落实藏汇于民,必须拓展外汇投资渠道,使藏汇于民成为可能。文章主要探讨当前可能的主要外汇投资渠道,并就在外汇投资活动中需要注意的事项给予说明。     

《货币银行学》课程教学方法初探

结合《货币银行学》课程的特点,指出了该课程应采用的教学方法。     

Forecasting in the presence of level shifts

This article addresses the problem of forecasting time series that are subject to level shifts. Processes with level shifts possess a nonlinear dependence structure. Using the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) model, I model this nonlinearity in a direct and flexible way that avoids imposing a discrete regime structure. I apply this model to the rate of price inflation in the United States, which I show is subject to level shifts. These shifts significantly affect the accuracy of out‐of‐sample forecasts, causing models that assume covariance stationarity to be substantially biased. Models that do not assume covariance stationarity, such as the random walk, are unbiased but lack precision in periods without shifts. I show that the STOPBREAK model outperforms several alternative models in an out‐of‐sample inflation forecasting experiment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论伪造罪客体

作为类罪的伪造罪所侵犯的客体尽管我国刑法条文中存在多元化现象，但在本质上讲，存在一个共同侵犯客体，社会的公共信用与交易安全。伪造罪的行为客体即通说中伪造罪的犯罪对象，它是指在社会的公共信用与交易安全上具有法律意义的物品，通过对我国刑法条文的梳理，主要有货币、有价证券、文书印章三类。     

外汇储备变动对货币政策的影响

近年来,我国国际收支持续双顺差,导致外汇领导储备持续快速的增长。外汇储备的这种增长,会不会对货币政策的执行产生影响,这引起了国内外学者的广泛讨论。笔者就我国外汇储备增长的原因以及由此对货币政策产生的冲击进行了探讨。     

浅谈货币市场和资本市场的良性互动

重点分析了现阶段我国货币市场与资本市场发展现状及其连接渠道，并在此基础上提出了在我国要实现货币市场与资本市场的良性互动，就必须进行利率市场化改革，发展货币市场，加大金融工具创新，完善和发展金融中介机构，建立金融控股公司。     

点钞机机壳模态分析与降噪研究

针对点钞机振动噪声问题，采用试验模态分析技术对点钞机机壳进行模态分析，得出机壳的模态参数，进一步识别出点钞机的噪声源和振动源，并对机壳作了阻尼垫隔振处理，使标准点噪声声压级降低了1．5dB。     

集团公司货币资金控制模式浅析

货币资金控制直接影响着企业集团经营和财务活动的效率。对集团公司货币资金控制的几种主要模式(统收统支方式、拨付备用金方式、设立结算中心方式、设立内部银行方式以及财务公司方式)的职能、特点等进行了分析和探讨。