游戏与幼儿自信心的培养

通过对幼儿游戏和自信心培养关系的分析，提出创设良好环境，促进幼儿自主探索、独立思考和发挥自身潜力，有利于培养幼儿的自信心。     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

非破损检测结构混凝土推定强度的可靠性分析

现行常用的非破损检测结构混凝土抗压强度技术规程中只给出了结构混凝土推定强度的计算方法,其计算结果的可信程度并不能确定.运用概率论知识,引入置信区间的概念,利用非中心t分布建立数学模型,对规程中推定强度进行概率分析,计算其置信度,以供工程实践参考.     

M-泛函的经验似然置信区间

利用经验似然思想，分别讨论不含附加信息和含附加信息时，M-泛函的经验似然置信区间，并推广Zhang Biao (1997) 在独立同分布下的结果。     

pn-1(Sn-M,2)的推扩

应用同调方法，给出贝蒂数P^n-1（S^n-M，2），M={P1，P2…Pm}m≥2.     

基于v-支持向量机的边际电价预测及置信区间估计

引入v-支持向量机，通过构造和求解一个凸优化问题，同时实现了对边际电价的预测和对置信区间的估计，且无需假定预测偏差的概率分布．在v-支持向量回归中，当ε〉0时，v是错误样本的个数占总样本个数份额的上界．利用该性质，边际电价预测的置信度和置信区间可以很自然地用参数1-v和变量ε来表示，这为发电公司进行竞价方案的风险分析打下了很好的基础．算例仿真表明，该方法具有较好的泛化性能和较高的预测精度．     

矩阵范数的界和方阵的ρ-条件数

本文给出了长方矩阵的p-范数及更广一类矩阵范数的上、下界又给出了方阵的p-条件数等于1的条件。(1≤p≤ ∞)。文[1]则是p=2的情况。前三节讨论p-条件数,第四节讨论长方矩阵范数的界。     

基于相关系数的正、负关联规则挖掘算法

负关联规则描述的是项目之间的互斥关系，它与传统的正关联规则有着同样重要的作用。然而，大多规则挖掘算法只能挖掘正规则而忽略了负规则的挖掘。本文利用统计学中相关系数的理论，提出一个能同时挖掘正、负关联规则的算法，实验表明该算法是有效的。     

Asymptotic Approximations of Jacobi Polynomials and Their Zeros with Error Bounds

IntroductionUniform asymptotic expansions and error boundsof the (α,β>- 1 ) two- term approximations of theJacobi polynomials P(α,β)n ( cosθ) were obtained[1] .Their result wassin θ2α cosθ2βP(α,β)n ( cosθ) =Γ( n +α + 1 )n!θsinθ1/ 2 Jα( Nθ)Nα +θB0 (θ) Jα+1( Nθ)Nα+1+σ2 ,|σ2 |≤ E2 θ2 +αN -2 ,　 0≤θ≤ π2 ,where E2 is a construct.Baratella and Gatteschiused the first two terms of this expansion[2 ] toconstructa more accurate one- term approximation:x(θ)x′(θ)…     

指数分布场合下基于分组数据区间估计的新方法

从新的角度证明了分组数据下指数分布总体均值的极大似然估计(MLE)的渐进正态性,给出了该均值的渐进置信区间。通过Monte Carlo模拟比较,发现该置信区间优于CHEN和MIE得到的置信区间。