有破产成本的风险债务估值未定权益分析

破产成本是企业破产时发生的费用，从而降低了企业资产价值。破产时，债权人只能得到扣除破产成本后的企业资产价值，因而对企业的债务价值有影响。运用未定权益分析方法，给出风险债务估值的基本思路及风险债务价值满足的微分方程，得到永久性债务估值模型，可作为长期债务估值的近似。运用未定权益定价和随机计算，导出了一个包含破产成本的风险债务估值公式，该公式能说明投资策略、股利策略对风险债务价值的影响。最后将得到的结果与默顿、布莱克等人的工作进行了比较。     

具有破产概率的企业股利贴现复合增长模型

企业具有破产概率对企业的内在价值有直接影响。在假定企业具有破产概率的条件下,建立破产分别出现在不同阶段时的两个股利贴现模型,可为投资者提供评价有破产可能的企业股票价值的理论依据。     

复合负二项风险模型的破产概率

讨论了一般情形的复合负二项风险模型，得出了初始资本为。时的破产概率以及初始资本为u（u≥0）时的破产概率的一般公式．     

随机利率下时间盈余模型的破产概率

本文首先介绍了文献[3]在一般化破产模型基础上构造的时间盈余模型，并进一步讨论了此模型下的具有随机利率因素的破产概率，使得相应的破产概率更具实际意义。     

The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

关于Erlang(n)风险过程的破产概率

考虑一个连续时间的风险模型,其中索赔时间间隔服从Erlang(n)分布,而且风险过程的调节系数不存在,本文给出了破产概率的渐近估计.     

我国商业银行市场退出监管法律问题研究

商业银行是金融业的核心,在国民经济中占有重要地位。它和其他企业一样,会在激烈的市场竞争中遭遇优胜劣汰。但同时它又不同于一般的企业,其是一个高风险行业,具有金融脆弱性。银行系统的脆弱性又导致其经营具有很强的负外部性。国家有必要通过进一步完善商业银行破产法律制度、建立存款保险制度等手段来扩大银行退市体系中的正外部效应,减少或消除负外部效应,以降低金融风险,促进国民经济的健康发展。     

Business failure prediction using decision trees

Accurate business failure prediction models would be extremely valuable to many industry sectors, particularly financial investment and lending. The potential value of such models is emphasised by the extremely costly failure of high‐profile companies in the recent past. Consequently, a significant interest has been generated in business failure prediction within academia as well as in the finance industry. Statistical business failure prediction models attempt to predict the failure or success of a business. Discriminant and logit analyses have traditionally been the most popular approaches, but there are also a range of promising non‐parametric techniques that can alternatively be applied. In this paper, the relatively new technique of decision trees is applied to business failure prediction. The numerical results suggest that decision trees could be superior predictors of business failure as compared to discriminant analysis. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从“湘缆”破产引发的改进国企内部控制环境的思考

从董事会、经营者素质、组织机构、人事政策、内部审计五个方面对“湘缆”内部控制失败案例进行系统分析,从而探讨了改进我国内部控制环境的思路。     

论我国企业破产重整制度的完善

《中华人民共和国企业破产法》重要的创新点之一便是设立了破产重整制度,本文拟从《中华人民共和国企业破产法》对重整制度的现行规定入手,结合我国经济法制建设的要求和相关法律规则,分析其存在的立法不足,并提出相应的建议,以便使该法在司法实践中得到进一步的充实和完善,对我国新时期的经济发展发挥最大的促进作用。