Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

最大成键能原理及其应用

本文提出了最大成键能原理。由此出发，求出相应的最大成键能分子轨道及成键能，并得到了分子中各原子间的成键能，这些可以很好说明分子的成键和分子吸原子间键强度的性质，与实验事实吻合。同时，还可以得到分子的Ｍｕｌｌｉｋｅｎ＇ｓ布居数，与通常的ＬＣＡＯ－ＭＯ方法一致。     

On some significance tests in cluster analysis

We investigate the properties of several significance tests for distinguishing between the hypothesisH of a homogeneous population and an alternativeA involving clustering or heterogeneity, with emphasis on the case of multidimensional observationsx ₁, ...,x _n ^p . Four types of test statistics are considered: the (s-th) largest gap between observations, their mean distance (or similarity), the minimum within-cluster sum of squares resulting from a k-means algorithm, and the resulting maximum F statistic. The asymptotic distributions underH are given forn and the asymptotic power of the tests is derived for neighboring alternatives.     

财政收支的预测与控制

运用最优控制论的原理与方法讨论了财政收支的预测模型与控制模型,并应用于制定国民经济发展规划．     

一类二维非线性对流扩散问题的特征—差分法

研究了一类具有Ｄｉｒｉｃｈｌｅｔ边界的二维非线性对流扩散问题的特征—差分法,建立了基于双线性插值的特征—差分格式,给出了其最大模估计。     

基于多纹理的合成孔径雷达图像相干斑抑制

相干斑抑制是合成孔径雷达 (syntheticapertureradar,SAR)图像后处理的首要问题。在多纹理假设下 ,采用最大似然方法来同时估计多个极化通道纹理参数。该方法保存了极化信息 ,消除了极化通道间的耦合 ,取得了较好的相干斑抑制效果 ;并与极化白化滤波 (polarimetricwhiteningfilter,PWF)和Lee的最优权值算法作了比较     

风景旅游区游客流空间移动模式的实证研究

采用移动比率矩阵阈值分析法、景区选择顺序评分法，揭示了崀山旅游区游客流的移动模式：以最奇特景区为汇点、组合最美景区为意境中的终点，旅客旅游中预去的景区数与途中距离成正比，进入的方向影响到首位景区的选择等规律，并分析其成因，在此基础上对崀山旅游线路的优化提出初步建议。     

比值居民地指数在城镇信息提取中的应用

TM图像中由于裸地与城镇光谱特征相似,利用传统的分类方法难以区分二者,城镇提取精度很难令人满意针对这一问题,本文提出了一种新的方法即比值居民地指数（RRI）法用于城镇信息提取,同时与最大似然监督分类法作对比,研究结果表明,RRI法（精度达87.50％）优于最大似然分类法（精度为78．13％）,是一种提取城镇居民地信息的理想方法,尤其适合裸地较多的干旱半干旱地区．     

The records of coastline changes reflected by mangroves on the Sunda Shelf since the last 40 ka

This paper presents a 40000-year-long high-resolution mangrove record from sediments of Core 18300, 18302 and 18323 on the continental shelf of the southern South China Sea and reconstructs the coastline changes on Sunda Shelf since the last 40000 years. In the period Marine Isotope 3, the old Sunda Shelf had low sea level, and it was partly exposed. Flourishing vegetations grew on the exposed old land. Mangroves developed along the coastline. On the Last Glacial Maximum, the sea level dropped greatly, coastline moved from inner shelf to outer shelf, the Old Sunda Land exposed further, and the lowering sea level induced the gradual disappearing of mangroves from the inner Sunda Shelf to the outer Sunda Shelf. And pioneer vegetation ferns covered the broadly exposed old land immediately. At the time of the last Deglaciation, sea level rose greatly, the coastline moved to the sea and the Sunda Shelf was drown again. Mangroves were emergent again from outer shelf to inner shelf and developed quickly.     

频谱分析方法在仿真可信性研究中的应用

应用频谱分析方法进行仿真可信性评估。分析了傅立叶谱估计、最大熵谱估计的统计特性,并分别构造相容性检验。引入瞬时谱估计分析非平稳随机信号,以及应用于某型近炸引信数字仿真模型验证的一个实例。