Habitat characterization and potential distribution of Tylototriton vietnamensis in northern Vietnam

The habitat preferences of the endemic Vietnam Crocodile Newt, Tylototriton vietnamensis were investigated on two scales: (1) at Yen Tu Nature Reserve, Bac Giang Province, Vietnam, while compiling information about pond occupancy and developing a qualitative comparison among breeding sites and (2) by developing a Species Distribution Model based on climate and land cover data identifying further suitable habitats in northern Vietnam. A factor analysis followed by a multiple linear regression showed 94% support for our occupancy ranking model. Our results suggest that T. vietnamensis preferentially inhabits small pools with long hydroperiod and pH above 4.3. Suitable areas for the species have higher incidence in northern regions, where undisturbed vegetation and temperature-related variables seem to make greater contributions. Additionally, these potentially suitable areas are strongly fragmented and only a few are under IUCN protection, increasing their vulnerability towards further degradation.     

Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling

Climate change poses major new challenges to biodiversity conservation. Distribution ranges of species have been proven to be affected by climate anomalies. Detecting the extent of protected species response to climate change can help formulate flexible conservation strategies to overcome the changing climate. Using species distribution modeling and high resolution climate data, we simulated current distribution patterns of 233 protected plants in China. Those patterns were then projected into future suitable habitats for each species under nine climate change scenarios, with no migration or full migration hypotheses. Under the most extreme climate change scenario （CGCM-B2a）, we evaluated species extinction risks. Sixteen percent of protected plants are expected to lose more than 30 % of their current ranges. By calculating areal shifts, hotspots for emigrants, immigrants, and persistent species were identified under climate change. Flexible conservation strategies were addressed for those regions. Those strategies strongly depend on the migration types of species and sensitivity of the hotspots to changing climate. In hotspots for emigrants, the main conservation strategy is ex situ protection; protected species from these regions should be stored in seed banks or botanical gardens. For hotspots of immigrants, enough space should be maintained for new species, and some measures are necessary to assist dispersal. For hotspots of persistent species, more natural reserves are needed. We highlight related fields that can help conserve protected species in the future, such as conserving the soil seed bank and understanding of the effects of migration ability and interactions between protected species.     

气候变化对浙江楠潜在分布范围及空间格局的影响

气候变化对物种分布的影响是珍稀濒危物种资源保护研究的热点问题之一。利用Maxent模型预测浙江楠在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和2070年4个历史时期的潜在分布区,分析浙江楠各个历史时期的分布格局,并评估了不同气候因子对其潜在地理分布的影响。结果表明,Maxent模型模拟现代分布区准确度极高,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.996。高度适生区包括浙江省与福建省交汇的武夷山、仙霞岭、浙江东南部的洞宫山、雁荡山等较高海拔山地地带,中度适生区位于幕阜山、罗霄山、怀玉山、武夷山、黄山、天目山、会稽山、雁荡山、洞宫山等低海拔丘陵地区。末次盛冰期浙江楠潜在分布区位于东海大陆架内; 全新世中期分布区与现代相似,但面积更大,向低海拔地区延伸; 2070年潜在分布区有北扩东进的趋势。Jackknife检验表明,影响浙江楠地理分布的主要因子有最干季降水量、最冷季降水量和最干季均温。     

Distribution of the meadow lizard in Europe and its realized ecological niche model

One of the most interesting but elusive members of the European herpetofauna is the meadow lizard (Darevskia praticola). It is a small, ground dwelling, predominantly forest living lacertid, for which many ecological and biological data are still missing. Moreover, at least for the western part of the species range (south-eastern Europe) its distribution and environmental associations are insufficiently known, likely due to difficulties in detection even with intensive field sampling. Here, we complemented the available literature records with our personal observations and explored the effects of environmental factors shaping the species ecological niche and distribution in Europe using the ecological niche modelling approach from Maxent software. The new records of the meadow lizard fill a gap in its known distribution. The most suitable habitats are in central and eastern Serbia, south-western Romania, and central, southern and south-western Bulgaria. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter, vegetation and slope had the strongest effect in defining the meadow lizard’s ecological niche. Niche suitability increased with the increase in forest cover and slope, while the temperature showed a bell-shaped response with a rather narrow tolerance range for temperature. Contrary to expectations, precipitation seemed to have no contribution to the species occurrence. Ecological niche model performance increased with a higher resolution of predictor variables despite the lower number of available occurrence records, although the slope variable had a greater predictive power when calculated at a lower resolution. Interestingly, high resolution vegetation variables (30 m) were able to show some level of habitat fragmentation, which likely resulted from deforestation. Overall, our results epitomize the effects of limited sampling on the biogeography inference of elusive species while having significant repercussions on conservation priorities and management of the species.     

Will future anthropogenic climate change increase the potential distribution of the alien invasive Cuban treefrog (Anura: Hylidae)?

The invasive alien Cuban treefrog Osteopilus sepentrionalis is native to Cuba, the Bahamas and some adjacent islands. It was accidentally introduced to Florida, Puerto Rico and some Hawaiian islands, where it has become a predator and competes with native wildlife. We have used a maximum entropy ecological niche modelling approach to model its potential spread derived from current climate conditions as present in its native geographic distribution and we project that model into future climate change scenarios in order to detect new areas that are potentially threatened. Our model, applying current climatic conditions, suggested high probabilities of occurrence in countries around the Gulf of Mexico. Projections of potential distribution under future anthropogenic global warming scenarios suggest an overall extension of the potential distribution. If the predictive maps are interpreted as depicting the invasive potential of O. septentrionalis, strategies to prevent further invasion should focus on biosafety measures within the areas highlighted.     

大红鹳在中国的分布现状与潜在适宜分布区预测

对大红鹳(Phoenicopterus roseus)在中国的分布记录进行了详细汇总和分析, 绘制了大红鹳在中国的最新分布图. 结合近年来相关文献和目击记录分析, 推测出现在中国的大红鹳有可能是从临近的南亚-中亚种群扩散而来. 根据多年来稳定的秋冬季观测记录, 认为大红鹳在中国的居留类型为旅鸟和罕见冬候鸟. 使用MaxEnt生态位模型预测其在中国的潜在适宜分布区, 结果达到良好水平. 预测发现: 在黑龙江的三江平原和松嫩平原、辽宁的辽东湾、内蒙古的海拉尔和巴彦淖尔等地区以及山东半岛都有大红鹳的适宜分布生境, 其潜在适宜生境的分布概率高达80%以上, 但这些区域迄今尚未有任何目击记录. 因此推测, 随着时间的推移, 大红鹳在我国的分布区有可能会继续扩大, 在上述潜在适宜生境地区有望发现其踪迹.      

基于Maxent生态位模型的松材线虫在中国的适生区预测分析

为了进一步掌握松材线虫在中国可能的扩展范围和可能造成的危害程度,利用Maxent生态位模型,结合地理信息系统ArcGIS,对松材线虫在中国的适生区范围进行了预测研究。结果表明:松材线虫在中国的适生区主要集中在华东和华南地区,华北地区南部、东北地区南部和西南地区南部则是松材线虫的中适生区或低适生区,其他地区则是松材线虫的非适生区。在适生区范围内,只要可感染的寄主松树存在,其他气候因子是可能满足松材线虫的侵染和致病的。ROC评价(receiver operating characteristic curve,受试者工作特征曲线,简称ROC曲线)结果表明,Maxent生态位模型预测松材线虫适生分布的训练数据和测试数据的AUC(areas under curve,曲线下面积)值分别为0.987和0.986,达到了极高的精度。各环境变量重要性的刀切法检验表明,温度因素对松材线虫的潜在分布影响最大。     

外来观赏植物大花金鸡菊在中国的 潜在地理分布预测

大花金鸡菊(Coreopsis grandiflora Hogg.)被引种后,因具有较强繁殖和适应能力,在我国山东等地区成为入侵物种,对当地植物多样性造成了一定威胁。笔者运用Maxent生态学模型,基于全球海拔变量及19个生物环境变量,结合地理信息系统ArcGIS,对大花金鸡菊在中国的潜在地理分布区做了预测。结果表明,大花金鸡菊在我国的适生范围主要集中在98°～125°E、21.5°～43°N水分充沛、温度适宜的暖温带、亚热带地区。其中,华东、华中大部,即江苏、安徽、上海市、山东等地为大花金鸡菊的集中分布区,为高适生区; 西南、华南北部与华东、华中地区相接的区域,以及华北南部邻接华东地区的局部地区为中适生区,西南、华南南部地区则为低适生区; 其他地区不适于大花金鸡菊生长。ROC 曲线分析表明,Maxent 生态位模型预测大花金鸡菊潜在地理分布的训练数据和测试数据的AUC值分别为0.960和0.965,达到了极高的精度。各环境变量重要性的刀切法检验表明,影响大花金鸡菊地理分布的环境变量依次为年均温、年平均降水量和最冷季平均温度。根据 Maxent 模型预测结果,以及大花金鸡菊的生物学特性和在中国的入侵现状,在我国中东部地区需要采取一定的有效措施对该物种的扩张进行控制。