公司债券违约率的结构化模型研究

采用期权定价和违约率函数的结构化处理方法建立估计公司债券违约率的模型，应用美国国内公司的整体数据给出了将模型具体化的处理方法，得到一个带马尔可夫链的违约率函数。根据实证数据的初步检验，该函数的拟合效果比较理想，可用于估计一般性上市公司群体的债券违约率。文中的处理方法具有良好的可行性，只要拥有模型必需的股权价值、债务价值和违约率的数据，就能按照该方法将模型具体化，拟合出违约率函数，并由此来估计公司债券的违约率。     

Web-Based Information Extraction Technology

Information extraction techniques on the Web are the current research hotspot. Now many information extraction techniques based on different principles have appeared and have different capabilities. We classify the existing information extraction techniques by the principle of information extraction and analyze the methods and principles of semantic information adding, schema defining,rule expression, semantic items locating and object locating in the approaches. Based on the above survey and analysis,several open problems are discussed.     

一类随机过程的多尺度建模

基于多尺度随机模型具有有效性和高度并行算法这一优势，提出如何用三阶树多尺度模型来表示1-D Reciprocal过程；并如何获得多尺度模型的参数。这就为具有Markov统计特性的信号或过程建立起一般的三阶树多尺度随机模型，为更有效的解决实际问题提供了理沦基础，同时，给出了一类定义在单位区间上的随机过程三阶树多尺度表示的仿真示例。     

密度演化方法在求解股市上扬天数中的应用

将股市上扬的天数转化为随机游程的长度，利用密度演化方法求得了股市上扬天数的分布以及均值和方差该文首次将密度演化方法用来研究股市的一般宏观规律，其结论可指导投资决策．     

Ruin Probability with Variable Premium Rate and Disturbed by Diffusion in a Markovian Environment

We consider a risk model with a premium rate which varies with the level of free reserves. In this model, the occurrence of claims is described by a Cox process with Markov intensity process, and the influence of stochastic factors is considered by adding a diffusion process. The integro-differential equation for the ruin probability is derived by a infinitesimal method.     

AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE QUEUEING SYSTEM GI/PH/I WITH SERVER BREAKDOWNS

In the existing literature of Repairable Queueing Systems (RQS), i.e., queueing systems with server breakdowns, it is almost all assumed that interarrival times of successive customers are independent, identically exponentially distributed. In this paper, we deal with more generic system GI/PH/1 with server's exponential uptime and phase-type repair time. With matrix analysis theory, we establish the equilibrium condition and the characteristics of the system, derive the transient and stationary availability behavior of the system.     

Subset threshold autoregression

We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MARKOV DECISION PROGRAMMING-THE FIRST PASSAGE MODEL WITH DENUMERABLE STATE SPACE

In this paper,we discuss MDP with discrete time parameter-the firstpassage model with denumerable state space.Under assumption A in this paper,we prove that an ε(>0)-optimal stationary policy exists.To find an ε-optimalstationary policy,an algorithm of policy improvement iteration and a method ofsuccessive approximations are given.     

多类服务器计算机网络系统优化配置研究

采用马尔可夫排队网络,建立了具有多类服务器并考虑网络影响的基于Ｃｌｉｅｎｔ／Ｓｅｒｖｅｒ平台的计算机网络系统的数学模型,给出了有限源开环马尔可夫排队网络的稳态分布概率的一般解。在此基础上,推出系统负载指标的解析结果,分析、论证系统服务器负载均衡的条件,提出归一化的性能指标向量,建立系统优化目标函数,研究不同情形下的配置优化求解方法。     

多维OU型Markov过程的弱对偶半群及其无穷小算子

研究多维ＯＵ型Ｍａｒｋｏｖ过程的不变测度、参考测度、弱对偶半群及其无穷小算子．说明了ＯＵ型Ｍａｒｋｏｖ过程不变概率测度和弱对偶半群的存在唯一性,Ｌéｖｙ过程Ａｔ的不变测度不一定是由它产生的ＯＵ型Ｍａｒｋｏｖ过程的不变测度,以及Ｌｅｂｅｓｇｕｅ测度ｍ和极限分布ξ在ｓｕｐｐξ＝Ｒｄ的条件下都是ＯＵ型Ｍａｒｋｏｖ过程的参考测度．